lcd panel supply chain free sample

2023-01-03 12:32:11

As revealed in DSCC’s latest release of the OLED Shipment Report – Flash Edition, OLED panel revenues decreased 3% Y/Y in Q4’22 to $12.6B as a result of a 7% Y/Y shipment decline. In Q4’22, by select OLED applications: •Smartphones increased 3% Y/Y in units and in revenues; •TVs decreased 4% Y/Y in units and 12% in revenues.

First, the bad news. We downgraded 2023 display equipment spending in the Q1’23 issue of our Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report another 13% to just $3.8B, the lowest since 2012. The decline can be attributed to weak end market conditions which are causing panel manufacturers to push out capacity increases. Display demand remains soft with too much demand pulled into 2020 and 2021 during COVID along with inflation and slower economic growth further weakening 2022 and 2023 demand. You can see in the chart below that demand on an area basis was pulled in vs. our 2020 forecast by 2% in 2020 and by 3% in 2021.

After LCD TV panel prices hit bottom in September 2022 and prices for several sizes increased in Q4, the rally in prices proved to be short-lived and prices have been in a holding pattern, with no changes from December into February. While prices for most sizes increased in Q4, the increase was modest. The last phase of the downward spiral in panel prices was characterized by a massive inventory drawdown in the display supply chain and a corresponding massive reduction in fab utilization by panel makers.

The iPhone 14 Series is unquestionably one of the few bright spots in the 2022 and 2023 smartphone market. It has allowed Apple to gain share and even boost its blended ASPs vs. the iPhone 13 Series despite the downturn in the economy. In the following charts, you can see their monthly panel procurement results obtained by DSCC through its supply chain sources where the iPhone 13 series in 2021-2022 is compared with the iPhone 14 series in 2022-2023. As indicated:

Although the FPD market continues to face difficult market conditions, automotive panels will continue to grow in 2023, with total shipments (LCD + OLED) expected to exceed 200M panels, which means an average of more than two panels per car. The market should continue to grow steadily as the rate of electrification increases.

The slowdown in display fab utilization that started in Q2’22 has bottomed out but the recovery in the first part of 2023 is slower than we expected, according to the latest release of DSCC’s Quarterly All Display Fab Utilization Report issued this week. The 2022 downturn was the most severe since 2008, and arguably the most severe ever, resulting from the post-pandemic slowdown in demand combined with excessive inventory in the display supply chain. That inventory has been diminished by slower utilization in the second half of 2022, but it remains at elevated levels, hindering the industry’s recovery.

In the next few weeks, we will see the Q4’22 earnings announcements for flat panel display makers, starting with LG Display on Friday, January 27th. The industry was clearly on a downward trend in the first three quarters of 2022, and we will look for signs that the worst is over and the industry can start to recover. Panel prices ended their long decline in September 2022 and rebounded slightly in the fourth quarter, but demand was still weak. Panel makers slowed their utilization in the third quarter in a bid to reverse the industry oversupply, and this continued into the fourth quarter. We expect that mot panel makers will report another quarter of operating losses.

After LCD TV panel prices hit bottom in September 2022 and prices for several sizes increased in Q4, the rally in prices proved to be short-lived and prices appear to be in a holding pattern, with no changes in December or January. While prices for most sizes increased in Q4, the increase was modest. The last phase of the downward spiral in panel prices was characterized by a massive inventory drawdown in the display supply chain and a corresponding massive reduction in fab utilization by panel makers.

Among major TV brands, exhibition of the TV product lines in the public showing in the LVCC Central Hall was diminished in 2023 compared to prior years. Whereas in 2020 Sony demonstrated a comprehensive TV lineup including 8K, OLED and LCD sets, in 2023 Sony decided to skip TV altogether in its exhibit space, and declared that they will demonstrate their TV lineup in a separate event later this year. Samsung and LG had more limited TV showing compared to prior years, so among the top four brands only TCL demonstrated anything close to a full product showcase.

In the recently released Advanced Smartphone Display Shipment and Technology Report, we revealed additional granularity and insights for the expected panel revenue declines for OLED smartphones. OLED smartphones panel revenue is expected to decline to $32B in 2022 from $33B in 2021 and to $31B in 2023.

In the recently released Quarterly OLED Shipment Report , DSCC reveals that 2023 OLED panel revenues are expected to increase 2% Y/Y to $42B after declining 2% Y/Y in 2022. This recovery is the result of expected triple digit growth for monitors, AR/VR and automotive applications and double-digit growth for notebook PCs, TVs and tablets.

After upgrading display capacity for six straight issues on improved market conditions in LCDs, DSCC has now lowered its display capacity forecast for four consecutive quarters on delays and cancellations as conditions worsen and remain weak. Prices were recently at marginal costs for LCD TV panels and it is projected that it will take until 2H’23 for prices to rise above cash costs.

Panel suppliers are mostly delaying new capacity decisions given the weak market conditions in the display market. The situation is particularly dire in LCDs where LCD TV panel prices approached marginal cost levels and BOE’s Chairman indicated they won’t build any more LCD TV fabs, resulting in the cancellation of B17+ and its removal from our forecast. The weakness in LCDs also spread to OLED spending since there is an oversupply there also and most OLED manufacturers also produce LCDs and are currently losing money. Samsung Display is the exception as it earned record OLED operating profits and operating margins in Q4’22 helped by strong iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max demand and LG Display’s challenges getting qualified for the 14 Pro Max.

The central promotional event of the holiday season happens this week, and retailers will be offering all-time low prices for TVs during Black Friday. The unprecedented decline in LCD TV panel prices continues to flow through to retail prices in the US, and the competition from LCD is also pulling down OLED TV prices, which are also hitting all-time lows.

Now that all of the industry’s flat panel display makers have reported their Q3’22 financial results, we update our industry profile. The third quarter showed a gaping chasm between OLED-focused display makers, especially Samsung Display, and the companies focused on LCD technology. For LCD makers, it was the worst quarter in years and perhaps the worst ever. Meanwhile, Samsung Display recorded its highest profits ever in the first quarter after it discontinued LCD production.

As revealed in DSCC’s latest release of the OLED Shipment Report – Flash Edition, OLED panel revenues decreased 11% Y/Y on a 17% Y/Y decline in panel shipments. Smartphones, tablets and TVs, which have a combined 70% unit share and 85% panel revenue share, decline while other categories had Y/Y unit growth.

In October 2022, headline inflation numbers in the US continued their slow but steady decrease from their highest point in more than 40 years. Meanwhile, the steep declines in LCD TV panel prices that started in the second half of 2021 are continuing to flow through to retail and resumed their downward trend after a one-month pause in September.

The market for MicroLED displays is still tiny but could reach $1.3B by 2027, according to DSCC’s latest MicroLED Display Technology and Market Outlook Report. Lowering manufacturing costs will be necessary before MicroLED can become competitive against other technologies, such as OLED. “MicroLED was initially presented as an ideal display technology for all applications but the hype has faded,” according to Guillaume Chansin, Director of Display Research at DSCC. “OLED has conquered the smartphone market and keeps getting better, while LCD still offers unbeatable value for money. MicroLED is currently only available as an oversized TV or a miniature projector for smart glasses.”

After fifteen months of decreases, LCD TV panel prices finally hit bottom in September 2022 and prices for several sizes increased in October. We now expect to see a modest increase in prices through the end of the year with prices plateauing in the first quarter above their all-time lows. The last phase of the downward spiral in panel prices was characterized by a massive inventory drawdown in the display supply chain and a corresponding massive reduction in fab utilization by panel makers. With some panel makers delaying to resume production until prices increase, the industry has seen prices edge up toward cash cost levels.

Falling prices and weak demand hit hard on panel maker profitability in the third quarter, as reported by LG Display, AUO and Innolux in their earnings releases last week. All three companies reported larger net losses for the quarter, the worst quarter in years.

Although the pandemic boom in semiconductors is over, and consumer electronics demand has weakened, Samsung Electronics continued to generate strong revenues and profits from multiple businesses, and its display business set a new profit record in the first quarter after ending LCD production. While competing display makers reliant on LCD suffered severe losses in the quarter (see separate story), Samsung generated profits selling OLED panels.

To watch the full Q&A Roundtable and on-demand sessions of the Global Display Supply Chain Dynamics and Technology Outlook Conference, click here to watch all videos and download PDF documents: https://www.accelevents.com/e/dynamics

The slowdown in display fab utilization that we predicted earlier this year reached new depths in the third quarter and was even more severe than we expected, according to the latest release of DSCC’s Quarterly All Display Fab Utilization Report issued this week. After more than a full year of panel prices falling to reach all-time lows, and after the entire display supply chain built excessive inventory, panel makers started to reduce utilization in Q2 and the slowdown accelerated in Q3. After a 6% sequential decline in Q2’22, total TFT input for all display makers in the third quarter was down 20% Q/Q and 24% Y/Y at 66.1M square meters, and in the current Q4’22 we expect total TFT input to be flat Q/Q and down 23% Y/Y at 66.1M square meters.

We had expected Q4’22 foldable panel shipments of 5.4M based on supplier surveys, but we are now seeing 2.9M, a 46% reduction as shown in the chart below. Q4’22 foldable panel shipments are expected to be down 54% Q/Q and 26% Y/Y. Sell through of the Z Flip 4 and Z Fold 4 have been below expectations. The iPhone 14 Series has sucked up most of the attention and sell-through and the Z Fold 4 price of $1799 remains too high in this environment. As a result, both the Z Fold 4 and Z Flip 4 are expected to be down Y/Y vs. the Z Fold 3 and Z Flip 3 in Q4, in fact, they are expected to be down big as you can see in the chart below. However, they were up in Q2 and Q3 and should be up for 2022, but only in the mid-single digits. Also weighing on Q4’22 foldable panel shipments are a number of Chinese models ramping slower and/or later than expected.

In the next few weeks, we will see the Q3 earnings announcements for flat panel display makers, starting with LG Display and AUO on Wednesday, October 26th. The heady profits of 2021 seem like a distant memory, and the industry looks poised for its worst quarter since the start of the pandemic. Panel prices started to decline a year ago and have not stopped their decline, and even with lower prices the demand for panels has decreased. After panel makers along with their downstream partners in the display supply chain built a tremendous amount of excess inventory, they slowed their utilization in the third quarter in a bid to reverse the industry oversupply. We expect that panel makers will report another quarter of declining margins for Q3’22 and expect several panel makers to report operating losses.

For the first time in seven months, total revenues for the three Taiwan-based panel makers increased on a M/M basis, as reported by the companies last week, giving a hopeful sign that LCD panel makers may have reached the bottom. Combined revenues increased by 5% M/M and the Y/Y comparison while still severe is slightly improved from August, the first such improvement in the Y/Y trend for nearly two years. September revenues for the three companies of TWD 34.3B (US$1.09B) were down by 47% compared to September 2021.

In September 2022, headline inflation numbers in the US continued their slow but steady decrease from their highest point in more than 40 years, but the concern in financial markets centered on the rise of “core” inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy costs. Meanwhile, the steep declines in LCD TV panel prices that started in the second half of 2021 are continuing to flow through to retail, although the downward trend took a one-month pause in September.

In the recently released Advanced Smartphone Display Shipment and Technology Report, we reveal additional granularity and insights for the expected 13% Y/Y and 5% Y/Y panel revenue decline for OLED smartphones. OLED smartphone panel revenue is expected to decline to $31B from $33B in 2021. As a result of the continued macroeconomic environment, persistent supply chain issues and weakened consumer demand, major smartphone brands continue to reduce their OLED smartphone panel procurement for 2022 by double-digit percentages.

A recent report by a Hyundai Securities analyst indicated that Samsung may only be able to ship 10M foldable smartphones in 2022, down from previous estimates of 15M, with the Z Flip 4 and Z Fold 4 accounting for 8M. Based on panel forecasts through November, we see Flip 4 and Fold 4 panel shipments up 47% and 46% respectively vs. the Flip 3 and Fold 3 amounting to 9M. However, this is down 8% vs. the figures in our Quarterly Foldable/Rollable Display Shipment and Technology Report, with the Flip 4, 7% below previous expectations and the Fold 4, 12% below our previous forecast. For Q3’22, we believe Flip 4/Fold 4 panel shipments actually came in 0.5% ahead of expectations with the Flip 4 actually 2% ahead of expectations and the Fold 4, 1% below expectations.

In the recently released Quarterly OLED Shipment Report , we reveal that 2022 OLED panel revenues are expected to decrease 4% Y/Y to $40.3B as a result of slower growth for monitors, notebook PCs and game platforms combined with faster Y/Y declines for smartphones. As macroeconomic concerns persist for battling inflation, monetary policies are enacted to combat it. While balancing a possible recession, weakened consumer demand, persistent supply chain issues, softening commercial demand and inventory buildup have created the perfect storm for Y/Y unit and revenue declines for smartphones, smartwatches and TVs in 2022.

Advanced TV shipments are expected to grow by a 17% CAGR through 2026 to 34.6M units generating $36.1B in revenue, according to the latest update to DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report, now available to subscribers. In our latest update, our forecast for OLED TV has been reduced as the competition between OLED and MiniLED has heated up. With the steep declines in LCD TV panel prices since mid-2021, MiniLED TVs have been priced more aggressively and are expected to continue to gain share.

Advanced Tablet (OLED and MiniLED) panel shipments fell 23% Q/Q while rising 10% Y/Y in Q2’22 to 1.9M units. It was the lowest quarter since Q2’21 as the iPad Pro is getting long in the tooth, ready for a refresh in Q4’22. Q3’22 is expected to rebound to 2.1M units, up 14% Q/Q and 12% Y/Y helped by the launch of the ~$500 OLED Huawei Mate Pad Pro 11” and the ramp of a new 12.9” Apple iPad Pro expected to launch in October. On an annual basis, we show a healthy 31% growth to 8.8M panels, 8% higher than our forecast, which is mostly due to the 11” Huawei Mate Pad Pro 2022 expected to perform better than previously expected. This contrasts with the total tablet market which is expected to fall 13% in 2022 to 195M panels with LED LCD tablet panels down 14%. OLED tablet panels are expected to rise 32% to 3.7M with MiniLED LCD panels rising 31% to 5.1M. MiniLEDs should maintain a 58% to 42% unit share advantage in 2022, same share as in 2021. Advanced Tablet panels are expected to account for a 4.5% share of the total tablet market on a unit basis in 2022, up from 3.0% in 2021. On a revenue basis, the Advanced Tablet share is expected to rise from 14% in 2021 to 24% in 2022 on 23% growth to $1.9B. MiniLEDs to maintain a large advantage over OLEDs, 79% to 21% on the high price of Apple’s MiniLED panels.

In DSCC’s Quarterly Display Supply Chain Financial Health Report, we examine, aggregate, compare and contrast 19 of the largest display equipment suppliers financials and found that their display equipment revenues fell 14% Q/Q and 34% Y/Y to $1.5B, the lowest since Q2’20 and they have now fallen at double-digit rates for the past four straight quarters.

With the headline inflation numbers in the US showing a slow but steady decrease in the summer months from their highest point in more than 40 years, the steep declines in LCD TV panel prices that started in the second half of 2021 are continuing to flow through to retail, according to the most recent data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI).

After reaching their all-time high in Q4’21, flat panel display maker revenues declined at a double-digit % sequentially for both Q1 and Q2’22, and total industry profits declined Q/Q at all levels of the income statement – gross profits, operating profits, pre-tax profits, net profits and EBITDA profits, according to the summary of their financial performance in DSCC’s Quarterly Display Supply Chain Financial Health Report. With all panel makers reporting their Q2’22 results, we can compile a full industry review for the first half of the year. The hefty profits of 2021 are now distant in the rear-view mirror for most panel makers, and many of them reported losses.

Five of the six publicly traded panel makers in China released their financial reports for the first half of 2022, and the market downturn in Q2 affected revenues and profits.

LCD TV panel prices reached all-time lows in August but they continue to decline in September, and we continue to forecast that the industry will have an “L-shaped” recovery in the fourth quarter. In other words, no recovery at all until 2023; the only question is how low prices will go before they flatten out. The ‘perfect storm’ of a continued oversupply, near-universally weak demand and excessive inventory throughout the supply chain has combined, and every screen size of TV panel has reached an all-time low price. Although fab utilization slowed sharply starting in July, we do not see any signal to suggest that prices can increase any time soon.

DSCC is now tracking all flexible OLED panel shipments by brand, model and panel supplier on a monthly basis. For the iPhone 14, which will be launched at the “Far Out” launch event on September 7th with the invite shown below, panel shipments started in June. As indicated, shipments jumped from 1.8M in June to 5.35M in July, over 10M in August and are expected to be over 16.5M in September. Cumulative panel shipments are over 34M.

For the third straight year, DSCC will hold a virtual conference in Q4 where its experts from around the world will provide attendees with the latest results and forecasts while also discussing key issues facing the display supply chain. 2022 has been a really bad year for the display industry, will 2023 be more of the same or significantly better? DSCC will take a supply chain approach to answering this and other questions. Topics include:

Two weeks ago, we covered Corning’s strong Q2 earnings release, and here we will cover its two Japanese competitors, NEG and AGC, and provide a comparison. All three glassmakers saw the impact of the slowdown of panel maker utilization in the second quarter, but all three showed robust corporate results, nevertheless.

As revealed in DSCC’s latest release of the OLED Shipment Report – Flash Edition, OLED panel revenues increased 12% Y/Y on 3% Y/Y unit declines as a result of form factor mix changes for smartphones and Y/Y growth for automotive, game, notebook PCs, monitors, tablets and AR/VR in Q2’22.

The current oversupply in the flat panel display industry will persist throughout the full year 2023 and will slowly correct thereafter, according to the latest update of DSCC’s Quarterly FPD Supply/Demand Report, updated last week. We covered the demand portion of this report in an article last week, and this week we will describe our supply forecast and the resulting supply/demand balance.

In the latest issue of DSCC’s Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Report, total LCD and OLED equipment spending remained relatively flat on a move-in basis despite a number of delays and cancellations. These fab schedule changes were mostly offset by higher spending for G8.5-G8.7 FMM VTE systems. 2020 -2025 spending fell just 0.2% vs. last quarter to $71.2B, while fine metal mask vacuum thermal evaporation (FMM VTE) spending rose from 10% to 12% of 2021-2025 spending, rising 18% from our last issue and overtaking exposure as the leading equipment segment over this period. The higher spend on FMM VTE tools is a result of a shift to larger substrates, full G8.5 and ½ G8.6-G8.7, as well as tandem stack adoption which boosts efficiency, brightness and lifetime and improves the OLED outlook in IT markets. Market leader Canon Tokki is a significant beneficiary of the higher tandem FMM VTE prices. By technology vs. last quarter from 2020-2025, our LCD outlook was reduced by 1% while our OLED outlook was increased by 1%.

LCD TV panel prices have reached all-time lows but they continue to decline, and although the pace of decline is slowing in the third quarter, we now forecast that the industry will have an “L-shaped” recovery in the fourth quarter. In other words, no recovery at all until 2023. The ‘perfect storm’ of a continued oversupply, near-universally weak demand and excessive inventory throughout the supply chain has combined, and every screen size of TV panel has reached an all-time low price. Although fab utilization has slowed sharply in July, we do not see any signal to suggest that prices can increase any time soon.

After a revenue spike in 2021 spurred by pandemic-fed demand and rising prices, flat panel display revenues are returning to earth in 2022 with a decline of 20%. Revenues are expected to return to growth in the coming years as displays remain a critical part of the modern world, and will grow to $152B in 2026, according to DSCC’s latest update to the Quarterly Flat Panel Display Forecast Report, released last week.

The slowdown in display fab utilization that we predicted earlier this year is now in full swing and even more severe than we expected, according to the latest release of DSCC’s Quarterly All Display Fab Utilization Report issued last week. After a full year of panel prices falling with no end in sight, and after the entire display supply chain built excessive inventory, panel makers started to reduce utilization in Q2 and the slowdown has accelerated in Q3. In Q2’22, total TFT input for all display makers was down 6% Q/Q and down 2% Y/Y at 82.8M square meters, and in the current Q3’22 we expect total TFT input to be down another 11% Q/Q and 15% Y/Y to 74.0M square meters.

As we continue to work on our latest LCD and OLED fab schedules, which should be published the week of July 25th, we already see a clear theme and that is delays in timing. This is a natural outcome of the Crystal Cycle when prices are low and companies are losing money, they push out new investments, which increase capacity. There is no doubt this makes sense at this time with fab utilization falling to 73% in Q3’22 to slow down price reductions. Panel suppliers added too much capacity in 2021 and 2022 expecting the demand pulled in during the pandemic to continue to increase.

In the next few weeks, we will see the Q2 earnings announcements for flat panel display makers, starting with LG Display on Wednesday, July 27th. The most recent quarter marks a full year after the biggest profits in the history of the flat panel display industry in Q2’21, and the prospects for the industry could not be more different. Panel prices started to decline a year ago and have not stopped their decline, and even with lower prices the demand for panels has decreased. We expect that panel makers will report another quarter of declining margins for Q2’22 and expect several panel makers to report operating losses.

In the recently released Advanced Smartphone Display Shipment and Technology Report, we reveal that 2022 OLED smartphone device revenue is expected to decline 1% Y/Y to $390B on a 4% Y/Y unit decline as a result of the macroeconomic headwinds, weakened consumer demand, persistent supply chain issues as a result of COVID-19 lockdowns in China and concerns regarding inventory product build up. Based on our supply chain sources, all of the major smartphone brands have reduced their OLED smartphone panel procurements for 2022 by single and double-digit percentages.

Inventories of TV panels have risen to a level rarely seen in recent years. Along with this, the fab utilization rates of FPD manufacturers have fallen to near record lows, and the average LCD fab utilization rate, which reached 90% last year, fell below 75% in June 2022. It is difficult to foresee a recovery in demand while there are ongoing headwinds such as the Russia / Ukraine war and inflation. Therefore, display companies are likely to continue adjusting to lower demand for a while.

Ross is co-founder and CEO of Display Supply Chain Consultants (DSCC), a leading display market research firm, and has worked throughout the display supply chain. Ross is one of the top sources of information about Apple"s plans and has a huge amount of influence on the rumors space, having revealed a plethora of accurate insights about upcoming Apple devices.

Although the display industry is having a difficult year, the Advanced TV market continued to grow Y/Y in Q1 2022, and this segment of the industry continues to look promising. In this round of the battle between LCD and OLED technologies the two sides played to a draw, with both sides gaining volume and share largely unchanged. The latest update of the DSCC Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report is now available to subscribers. On a brand level, Samsung has lost share in the Advanced TV market since early 2020, but managed to regain 2 share points of revenue share despite losing a share point of unit share.

Last week, we released the Advanced Notebook display results and our latest forecast in the Quarterly Advanced IT Display Shipment and Technology Report. Not surprisingly, we see declines in the total notebook market and slightly slower growth in the advanced notebook display market in 2022 as a result of inflationary concerns, weakened consumer demand and supply chain disruptions amid COVID 19 lockdowns.[

In the recently released Quarterly Advanced IT Display Shipment and Technology Report, some highlights for Advanced Monitors include: •In Q1’22, advanced monitor panel shipments grew 45% Q/Q and 219% Y/Y to 412K panels. We expect to see an increase to 625K panels in Q2’22, a 52% Q/Q increase with MiniLED models outpacing OLED models by more than a 5:1 ratio.

DSCC reported on its latest results and forecasts for OLED, MiniLED LCD and LED LCD tablet panels in its latest Quarterly Advanced IT Display Shipment and Technology Report. We refer to OLED and MiniLED tablets as Advanced Tablets. This category fell 5% Q/Q while rising 362% Y/Y to 2.43M. It was the second best quarter to date for this category on continued strong demand for the 12.9” MiniLED iPad Pro and the launch of Samsung’s OLED Galaxy Tab S8+ and S8 Ultra. MiniLEDs had a 56% share of the Advanced Tablet market on a unit basis in Q1’22, down from 74%, and a 71% share on a revenue basis, down from 87%, with the disparity related to the higher MiniLED panel prices.

With concerns about excess inventory in a deteriorating economy, Samsung has notified all business groups to suspend purchases and control their inventory status. Samsung has informed flat panel display makers in smartphone and TV markets that panel purchases will be halted. Samsung is the world’s largest supplier of both smartphones and TVs. The news may be a coincidence, but at the end of this month Samsung will end LCD TV production at its last remaining production site, the L8-2 Gen 8.5 fab in Korea. The closure will mark the end of more than 25 years of LCD production by Samsung Display.

Excessively high inventory throughout the flat panel display value chain will continue to put pressure on prices and will likely lead to a sharp slowdown in industry production in the second half of 2022. Throughout the display value chain, the surge in demand generated during the pandemic’s early days, combined with shortages and transportation problems, set in motion a path toward building a mountain of inventory. Now that the pandemic demand peak has passed, that big mountain needs to be consumed before a normal supply/demand balance can be restored.

Q1’22 was a mixed quarter for display equipment suppliers with some positive and negative results as seen in our Quarterly Display Supply Chain Financial Health Report published last week. Positive developments included: •Display capex from 13 publicly traded display companies rose 10% Q/Q to $5.5B, the highest value since Q1’21 with China Star and BOE both over $1B and LGD right under $1B. •Estimated private company capex was also up Q/Q resulting in total capex up 50% Q/Q to $8.1B. •Capital intensity rose for the second straight quarter after falling for four straight quarters. It rose from 13% in Q4’21 to 16% in Q1’22, with lower display revenues due to lower prices a large factor. •Equipment spending on an install basis rose 33% Q/Q.

Flat panel display maker revenues declined Q/Q from their all-time high in Q4’21, and total industry profits declined Q/Q at all levels of the income statement – gross profits, operating profits, pre-tax profits, net profits and EBITDA profits, according to the summary of their financial performance in DSCC’s Quarterly Display Supply Chain Financial Health Report.

DSCC sources in China have learned that BOE plans to commercialize the 95” 8K White OLED TV panel shown at Display Week. I must admit, I heard this at the exhibit during Display Week but did not believe it, but our sources in China confirm BOE’s intent. The product shown at Display Week claimed brightness of 800 nits peak and 150 nits typical and a color gamut of 99% of DCI-P3, with a contrast ratio of 100,000:1 and a 120Hz refresh rate.

I started by covering the latest smartphone set shipment results and a 2022 forecast by region. Smartphone unit shipments were up 4% in 2021 to 1.4B units, with China the largest region and Middle East and Africa growing the fastest. For 2022, we forecast the market to fall 1% with Asia Pacific expected to overtake China. Eastern Europe and China are expected to decline the most. But there are growing concerns that the market could be down a lot more, 10% - 15%, if China shutdowns are extended, war persists, inflation, etc. LCD volumes appear to be most affected due to weakness in China and Eastern Europe where LCDs are stronger. Some brands are rumored to be cutting up to 30% of their LCD volumes.

Ross and Brian discuss the new technologies shown at SID Display Week 2022 right from the show floor. Ross Young is co-founder and CEO of DSCC. Previously, he started, ran and sold DisplaySearch which he started with less than $500 in capital and grew to over $10M in revenues. He has also worked throughout the display supply chain including at a TV brand, panel supplier, multiple equipment suppliers and a materials supplier.

Jon Prosser and Sam Kohl are joined this week at the Genius Bar by Ross Young, the CEO of Display Supply Chain Consultants (DSCC). He knows EVERYTHING about Apple"s future products, and even alludes to new hardware coming at WWDC. You won"t want to miss a second of this revealing episode.

The production of flat panel displays requires many different materials. In this report, we examine the market and trends for various gases, metal targets, liquid crystal, photoresist and PI alignment. This report reviews vital materials used in display production and provides estimates of consumption and revenues for each category of materials. The report also profiles major suppliers for each material and a forecast for material consumption and revenue. As the display industry becomes dominated by production in China, local suppliers are emerging to provide a domestic material supply chain and the report includes profiles of China"s domestic material suppliers.

At the Global Display Supply Chain Dynamics & Technology Outlook Conference, DSCC analysts around the world provided attendees with the latest results and forecasts while also discussing the key issues facing the display supply chain. Experts in all areas of the display industry reveal the latest outlook for each market and technology to make sure your company is best prepared for display related competition in 2023 and beyond.

As revealed in DSCC’s latest release of the OLED Shipment Report – Flash Edition, OLED panel revenues remained flat Y/Y despite a 4% Y/Y unit decline in Q1’22. OLED applications that had Y/Y panel shipment and revenue increases were:

In this article, I will share with you some of the highlights of the SID 2022 exhibit from my perspective. I focused on the panel suppliers with BOE, China Star, LGD and SDC having large booths and numerous interesting developments.

LCD TV panel prices continue to decline, and the pace of price decreases is accelerating in the second quarter despite prices approaching cash costs. The combination of a continued surge in supply and near-universally weak demand continues to drive prices down. A month ago, we reported that the LCD TV panel market appears to be in a sort of a lull. That lull seems to have broken, and not in favor of the panel makers. Prices declined dramatically from their peaks in mid-2021 but supply has continued to be robust while we face the slowest season for demand. Our sources indicate that some brands considered that prices might stabilize in Q1 and used the period to stock up on low prices but have faced continued weak demand and now hold excess inventory.

Given the worsening pricing and supply/demand picture, we have seen a number of fab expansion projects delayed and a few canceled. As a result, we now show 2023 equipment spending on a move-in basis down 57% to just $5.3B. By technology, we show LCDs down 70% to just $1.9B and OLEDs down 42% to $3.4B. Note, we do show a number of fab projects with deliveries in Q1’24 and show 2024 up 117% vs. 2023 to $11.6B. In 2024, we show OLEDs up 115% to $7.3B and LCDs up 121% to $4.3B. We also show another 15% growth in 2025 to a total of $13.3B. We lowered 2020-2025 spending by 6% to $71B.

The 2022 SID/DSCC Business Conference at DisplayWeek, sponsored by Applied Materials, Corning, GE and Amorphyx will feature over 35 different talks on all aspects of the display industry. One of five application-oriented sessions of the conference will address the market for automotive displays, one of the most demanding and potentially profitable segments of the flat panel display industry.

In the next few weeks, we will see the Q1 earnings announcements for flat panel display makers, starting with LG Display on Wednesday, April 27th. After a roller-coaster 2021, which saw both the biggest profits in the industry and sharply declining margins in the second half, we expect that panel makers will report another quarter of declining margins to begin 2022, which promises to be dramatically less profitable than last year.

Annual revenues for AR/VR displays will reach $7.2B in 2027, according to DSCC. The updated forecast has been published in the new Biannual Augmented and Virtual Reality Display Technologies and Market Report. The report includes a breakdown by display technologies and predicts that LCD will have the largest share of shipments until 2025. After that, OLED on Silicon (SiOLED) will become the dominant technology.

DSCC has released its latest update of our Advanced TV Display Cost Report, with updates to OLED and LCD cost profiles. This edition includes updates to all sizes of WOLED panels and 55”+ LCD sizes including LCD with MiniLED backlights, and cost profiles for 55” and 65” QD-OLED panels from SDC.

Flat panel shipments with MiniLED technology will increase to more than 40M units by 2026, according to the latest update of DSCC’s Quarterly MiniLED Backlight Technology, Cost and Shipment Report. MiniLED technology is thriving in the display and optoelectronic industries. An increasing number of industry players, both upstream and downstream, are choosing to ride this train. One year ago, Apple launched its iPad Pro with MiniLED technology and the average quarterly shipments reached 1M sets in 2021. Apple also launched a new MacBook Pro (14” & 16”) with MiniLED BLU in the fourth quarter of 2021. By leveraging its M1 CPU, Apple’s MiniLED IT products had outstanding sales results in Q4’21, and the forecast for 2022 also looks very promising.

Shipments of display panels for virtual reality (VR) will reach double-digits for the first time in 2022, according DSCC’s latest Augmented and Virtual Reality Display Technologies and Market Report . A total of 15.8M panels will find their way into VR headsets this year, with over 80% of the demand expected to come from Meta. While most of today’s VR headsets currently use LCD panels, other display technologies will soon appear. AMOLED will be back, thanks to the launch of Sony’s PlayStation VR2. We expect these AMOLED panels to have a pixel density well above 800 PPI, which is a record high for mass-produced AMOLED. With high contrast displays and no visible screen door effect, the PSVR2 is likely to be a hit among gamers.

DSCC expects OLEDs to grow rapidly as costs fall, performance improves and capacity surges. The company is forecasting $65B in revenue on a 9% CAGR from 2021 to 2026 in the latest release of its Quarterly OLED Shipment Report, which reveals shipments and prices for every OLED application by brand, model and panel supplier.

Advanced TV shipments are expected to grow by a 19% CAGR through 2026 to 38.6M units generating $35.4B in revenue, according to the latest update to DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report, now available to subscribers. This report covers the worldwide premium TV market, including the most advanced TV technologies: WOLED, QD-OLED, QDEF, Dual Cell LCD and MiniLED with 4K and 8K resolution. The report looks at current and future TV shipments and revenues by technology, region, brand, resolution and size, and forecasts the growth of all these technologies. Several weeks ago, we covered the most recent historical results and this week, we will cover our updated forecast.

LCD TV panel prices continue to decline and more is on the way as we progress to the second quarter. Although the pace of price decreases is slowing as prices approach cash costs, there is no sign that prices will hit bottom and rebound. The potential for a negative impact on global TV demand from the Russian war in Ukraine combined with high inventory levels suggests continued price pressure in Q2.

DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced IT Display Shipment and Technology Report reveals OLED vs. MiniLED LCD monitors, notebook PCs and tablets shipments by quarter, brand, size, resolution, refresh rate and many other features. In the recently released report, some highlights for Advanced Monitors include:

The 2022 SID/DSCC Business Conference at DisplayWeek, sponsored by Applied Materials, Corning, GE and Amorphyx will feature over 35 different talks on all aspects of the display industry. One of five application-oriented sessions of the conference will address the market for TVs and TV displays, which is so critical for the supply/demand balance of the display industry.

The battle between LCD and OLED technologies reached a new stage in Q4’21 with each camp making gains by playing to their strengths. Aggressive OLED pricing allowed the emerging technology to gain unit share, but a combination of higher LCD TV prices, a bigger screen size mix and the growth of MiniLED TV sets allowed LCD TV to gain revenue share. The latest update of the DSCC Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report is now available to subscribers. On a brand level, Samsung has lost share in the Advanced TV market, but with a richer product mix, Samsung has appeared to stabilize its revenue share on a worldwide basis.

DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced IT Display Shipment and Technology Report reveals OLED vs. MiniLED LCD tablet, notebook and monitor shipments by quarter, brand, size, resolution, refresh rate and many other display related and non-display features as well. Last week, we released the Advanced Notebook display results and our latest forecast, and not surprisingly, we see massive growth as both OLEDs and MiniLEDs are growing rapidly and have a bright outlook.

After upgrading display capacity for six straight issues on improved market conditions in LCDs, we lowered display capacity this quarter on delays and cancellations as conditions worsen. From 2021 to 2026, display capacity is expected to grow at a 4.8% CAGR vs. 5.1% last quarter, and 2026 capacity is down 1% vs. our last issue. LCD capacity was downgraded by 1% in 2026 and now grows at a 3.7% CAGR through 2026 vs. 3.9% last quarter. 2026 OLED capacity was downgraded by 2% vs. last quarter and now grows at a 15.3% CAGR through 2026 vs. 15.7% last quarter. OLED capacity will reach a 13% share in 2026, up from 8% in 2021.

DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced IT Display Shipment and Technology Report reveals OLED vs. MiniLED LCD tablet, notebook, monitor and all in one (AIO) shipments by quarter, brand, size, resolution, refresh rate and many other display related and non-display features as well.

DSCC’s Quarterly Foldable/Rollable Display Shipment and Technology Report revealed that Q4’21 foldable smartphone shipments rose 65% Q/Q and 520% Y/Y to a record high 4.25M units. oSamsung led with a 96% share on shipments of 4.1M. Samsung has benefited from a strong focus on this category as it looks to grow its flagship share as well as a large technology and capacity lead in foldable displays from its panel business - Samsung Display (SDC). This has resulted not only in a large lead in displays, but ultra thin glass (UTG) as well. According to DSCC Co-Founder and CEO, Ross Young, “Samsung is fortunate that its largest likely competitor, Apple, is not in this market segment and its second largest potential competitor, Huawei, is facing numerous restrictions, which have prevented it from getting panels from Korea or 5G chips. Most of its other potential competitors (Google, Oppo, Vivo and Xiaomi) are all relying exclusively on Samsung Display in 2022 for panels and UTG, giving Samsung significant influence over the foldable display supply chain. Most of the Chinese brands’ foldable programs have been relatively small in volume and short-lived. Thus, we should expect Samsung to continue to dominate this market although they will inevitably lose some ground as more brands enter.”

Our Quarterly Foldable/Rollable Display Shipment and Technology Report is filled with insights on the latest foldable and rollable product plans from panel makers and brands, regional demand as well as panel and cover window cost forecasts, supply chain relationships and forecasts and much more. We expect to publish the pivot tables and report this week.

Pulled by strong demand for large-screen LCD panels, display glass shipments increased by 13% in 2021 to an all-time high of 687M square meters, according to the latest update to DSCC’s Display Glass Report, released last week. Glass makers shipped 174.5M square meters of display glass in Q4’21, a 2% decrease Q/Q. Shipments are expected to increase by 1% Q/Q in Q1’22 to 176M square meters as higher capacity offsets slower panel maker utilizations.

In our just released Q1’22 Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report, we reveal that there are now 11 different 15K G8.5/G8.6 IT OLED lines under development and provide the timing and equipment spending for each. IT fab spending is expected to increase every year from 2021 to 2025 and lead OLED spending in 2024 and 2025 and LCD + OLED spending in 2025.

LCD TV panel prices, which peaked in summer 2021, fell through the second half of the year and are continuing to fall in the new year. The pace of price decreases is slowing, and we expect that pattern to continue through the first half of the year as prices approach cash cost for some panel makers.

With LCD panel prices continuing to fall toward cash costs or even below cash costs, we forecast that display fab utilization will slow in the first half of 2022, according to the latest release of DSCC’s Quarterly All Display Fab Utilization Report issued last week. However, because of capacity increases, even with lower utilization, the industry will have increased input for the first half, suggesting continued pressure on panel prices. In Q4’21, total TFT input for all display makers was down 2% Q/Q and up 9% Y/Y at 86.3M square meters, and in the current Q1’22, we expect total TFT input to be up 1% Q/Q and up 8% Y/Y to 87.1M square meters.

With the seasonal sales peak for smartphones behind us, utilization at mobile display fabs is expected to decrease in Q1 but remain at a higher level than a year ago, according to the latest release of DSCC’s Quarterly OLED and Mobile LCD Fab Utilization Report, issued this week. In Q4’21, total TFT input for all display makers was up 3% Q/Q and 16% Y/Y at 6.5M square meters, and in the current Q1’22, we expect total TFT input to be down 3% Q/Q but still up 15% Y/Y at 6.3M square meters.

In the next few weeks, we will see the Q4 earnings announcements for flat panel display makers, starting with LG Display on Wednesday, January 26th. Although price declines will likely bring profits down from historically high levels during the summer, we expect that panel makers will report continued profits to close out the most profitable year in the history of the industry.

Now that CES 2022 is in the rear-view mirror, it is a good time to review what the new TV product introductions mean for the premium TV market this year. The arrival of Samsung Display’s QD-OLED heightens the technology battle in the premium TV space, and after a year of unprecedented volatility in LCD TV panel prices, we expect LCD products to become more aggressive as panel prices have come down.

DSCC has released its latest Quarterly OLED Shipment Report and has revealed the updated shipment and revenue forecasts for all OLED applications through 2026. DSCC forecasts $63B and an 8% revenue CAGR in OLED panel revenue through 2026, driven by double-digit revenue CAGR growth for notebook PCs, monitors and tablets and a 6% CAGR revenue growth for smartphone and a 9% CAGR revenue growth for OLED TVs.

DSCC has just released its latest Quantum Dot Display Technology and Market Outlook Report. According to the report, the mature QDEF technology will continue to grow in 2022 while new configurations appear, marking a diversification in technologies and materials. Quantum dots (QDs) have been used for nearly a decade to enhance colors in LCD panels. In the early days, OEMs had the choice between two types of configurations: a glass tube designed for edge-lit backlights or an optical film that could fit inside most LCD panels. The latter became known in the industry as QDEF, which stands for Quantum Dot Enhancement Film. Sony and TCL initially went for the glass tube for their premium TVs while Amazon adopted QDEF in its most expensive tablet, the Kindle HDX.

Quantum dots have been used for nearly a decade to enhance colors in LCD panels. An emerging application is quantum dots on a MiniLED backlight. DSCC forecasts shipments of MiniLED LCD TVs with QDEF to grow from 6.2M units in 2022 to over 14M units in 2026.

LCD TV panel prices, which peaked in summer 2021, fell through the second half of the year and are continuing to fall in the new year. The pace of price decreases is slowing, and we expect that pattern to continue through the first quarter, but prices have already given up most of the gains that they made in the long upcycle of 2020-2021.

DSCC has released its latest Quarterly Advanced Smartphone Features Report and Quarterly OLED Shipment Report and revealed its preliminary 2021 and 2022 AMOLED smartphone unit and revenue results. In 2021, our preliminary AMOLED smartphone panel shipment results show that 2021 will have a total of 644M AMOLED smartphone panel shipments, up 28% Y/Y. Of the 644M units, rigid AMOLED smartphone panels will have a 42% unit share, flexible AMOLED smartphone panels will have a 55% unit share and foldable AMOLED smartphone panels will have a 2% unit share.

Display Supply Chain Consultants (DSCC), the world’s leading firm focused solely on flat panel display industry insight, has released a complimentary whitepaper, “10 Predictions for the Display Industry in 2022”. “We are pleased to offer this whitepaper to all those interested in the flat panel display industry,” said Bob O’Brien, Co-Founder & Principal Consultant of DSCC. “We started this tradition in January 2019, and each year we have brought increased expertise to our outlook. We cover the issues of the greatest relevance to the display industry with a view to making aggressive predictions – no safe bets.”

DSCC has released its latest Quarterly Advanced Smartphone Features Report and revealed its preliminary Q4’21 and 2021 AMOLED smartphone unit and revenue results. Q3’21 and Q4’21 were very strong quarters for AMOLED smartphone panel procurements and AMOLED smartphone revenue. Q3’21 finished strong with a 22% Q/Q and 33% Y/Y increase of 163M AMOLED smartphone panels and $106B for smartphone revenue followed by Q4’21, with an 11% Q/Q increase to 180M AMOLED smartphone panels and $110B in smartphone revenue. On a panel procurement basis, we expect 2021 to achieve a total of 634M AMOLED smartphone panels, a 27% Y/Y increase and $397B for smartphone revenue, a 22% Y/Y increase.

We have upgraded our 2025 display capacity forecast by 4% vs. the previous issue of our Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report, due to new investments revealed and analyzed in our fab schedules as LCD manufacturers continue to add capacity and OLED manufacturers look to better address the IT market. Manufacturers are also looking to stretch capacity through process simplification and de-bottlenecking to meet demand. We now see 11% growth in 2021, 7% growth in 2022 as SDC and LGD are forecasted to accelerate shutdowns with 4% - 7% growth from 2023 – 2026 on new LCD fabs from BOE, CSOT and Tianma. The more modest growth in 2022 and from 2023 to 2026 should ease pricing pressure some. Relative to last quarter, capacity is 1% - 3% higher per year from 2023-2026.

At DSCC’s recent Global Display Supply Chain Dynamics and Technology Outlook Conference, which you can still register for, one of the topics I covered was what the big display stories are likely to be in 2022 as well as their implications. The first event that could have far reaching implications across the display industry is if Samsung Visual Display (VD), the world"s #1 TV brand, and LG Display, the world"s #1 and only OLED TV panel supplier, reach an agreement on both OLED and TV panels.

After the two months with the fastest price declines in the history of the industry in September and October, LCD TV panel prices continued to fall in November, but the pace of price decreases is slowing, and we expect that pattern to continue into 2022. After two months where the average decline in LCD TV panel prices exceeded 15%, the average decline in November among the seven TV sizes we track was “only” 6.4%. LCD TV panel prices have now lost most of the gains that they achieved in the long up-cycle from May 2020 to June 2021.

Watch as Japan Display Inc. (JDI) Sales Director, Cameron Zand, announces JDI"s new 2.88" 1201ppi LTPS TFT-LCD at DSCC"s AR/VR Display Forum. Register to watch the AR/VR Display Forum session recordings and download PDFs here: https://www.accelevents.com/e/arvr-di... . The recordings will be available until December 4, 2021.

Flat panel display maker revenue reached a new record in Q3’21, but declining LCD panel prices dented profits, according to the summary of their financial performance in DSCC’s Quarterly Display Supply Chain Financial Health Report. With all panel makers reporting their Q3’21 results, we can compile a full industry review for Q3’21; while not reaching the high profits of Q2, it was still an excellent quarter for flat panel makers.

The combination of relatively stable OLED TV prices competing against rising LCD TV prices led to another quarter of gains for OLED TV sales, according to the latest update of the DSCC Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report, now available to subscribers. As OLED has gained share, Samsung has lost share in the Advanced TV market, and while Samsung maintained the #1 position in both units and revenues in Q3’21, its share has eroded especially in Western Europe.

DSCC’s David Naranjo opened the conference with an overview of the display industry, including trends in refresh rates, 5G and how OLED, MiniLED and LCD are competing in various markets. There are only two weeks left to watch the session recordings from the AR/VR Display Forum. The event took place on November 3-4 and featured three DSCC analysts and 18 invited speakers from various companies involved in augmented reality and virtual reality.

DSCC has confirmed with its supply chain sources that Google has decided not to bring the Pixel Fold to market. Not in 2021 and reportedly not in the first half of 2022. Our sources indicated that Google believed the product wouldn’t be as competitive as it needed to be. They likely figured that competing against Samsung in the US and Europe in a small niche market facing higher costs than their primary competitor, would stack the odds against this project. I point out regional differences as in China, where Samsung is not as strong, we do expect to see many competing products with similar form factors from Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi, Huawei and Honor.

The steep declines in LCD TV panel prices are reversing the unprecedented surge of inflation in TVs, and prices have peaked but remain higher on a Y/Y basis, according to the most recent data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI). The BLS publishes CPI statistics for hundreds of categories, and its current data set goes back to 1996, but the CPI is indexed to 1982-1984.

In DSCC’s newly released Quarterly Advanced IT Display Shipment and Technology Report, one of the many highlights is the cost comparisons between OLEDs and MiniLED panels in tablets, notebooks and monitors. We took the MiniLED panel sizes that Apple has or will introduce at 12.9”, 16.2” and 27” and tried to compare them on an apples to apples basis with identically sized OLEDs. We actually looked at two different flavors of MiniLED backlight units (BLUs) as shown below. For tablets and notebooks, we looked at chip on board (COB) FPC and BT type PCB backplanes with 10,000 MiniLEDs and 2596 zones as well as a lower cost approach with 3000 MiniLEDs and 779 zones using package on Board MiniLEDs with FR4 PCB backplanes. For monitors, we used an 1152 zone configuration with 5000 MiniLEDs and a BT-type PCB backplane. The report laid out the type of fab utilization and yields which assumed G8.5 oxide backplanes were used with variable refresh rates up to 120Hz.

DSCC hosted the AR/VR Display Forum last week. The virtual event featured three DSCC analysts and 18 invited speakers from various companies involved in augmented reality and virtual reality. The topics covered included display technologies (LCD, OLED, MicroLED) as well as lasers and waveguides.

The best thing that can be said about LCD TV panel prices in October is that the pattern is not worse than September, which remains the month with the largest single-month decline in panel prices in the history of the industry. The average decline in October among the seven TV sizes we track was “only” 15.5%, almost but not quite matching the 15.8% decline in September. LCD TV panel prices have now lost more than half the gains that they achieved in the long up-cycle from May 2020 to June 2021.

DSCC issued its latest LCD and OLED fab schedules last week as part of its Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report and its OLED Supply/Demand and Capital Spending Report. In addition to the fab schedules in Gantt chart form sorted chronologically and by manufacturer, we also provide an analysis of all the latest FPD fab schedule changes.

With LCD panel prices falling at the fastest rates ever, display industry fab utilization is expected to slow down in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to the latest release of DSCC’s Quarterly All Display Fab Utilization Report, issued this week. In Q3 2021, total TFT input for all display makers was up 3% Q/Q and 12% Y/Y at 87.3M square meters, and in the current Q4 2021, we expect total TFT input to be down 3% Q/Q but still up 7% Y/Y at 85.1M square meters.

DSCC has released its latest update of our Advanced TV Display Cost Report, with updates to OLED and LCD cost profiles. This quarter’s edition includes updates to all sizes of WOLED panels and 55”+ LCD sizes, including LCD with MiniLED backlights, and some cost profiles for new OLED sizes, including 97” UHD. The surge in demand for flat panel display panels and other electronic devices has resulted in shortages for several critical components, including glass substrates, driver ICs and PCBAs. These shortages have had a bigger impact on LCD costs than on OLED panel costs, which are still declining compared to 2020 as yields improve.

Last weekend there was a heavyweight championship fight between the UK’s Tyson Fury and the USA’s Deontay Wilder. But, DSCC has been working to quantify another heavyweight fight between OLEDs and MiniLED backlit LCDs in the tablet, notebook and monitor markets. The battle between OLEDs and MiniLEDs is expected to last for years. Both are likely to see tremendous growth and could be labeled winners as will the consumer who will enjoy better performing displays at lower and lower prices.

DSCC has released its latest Quarterly Advanced Smartphone Features Report and revealed its preliminary Q3’21 AMOLED smartphone unit and revenue results. In Q3’21, AMOLED smartphone panels rose 21% Q/Q and 31% Y/Y to 160M panels, the second-best quarterly result to date. The iPhone 13 dominated with a 30% share on a panel shipment timeline. Apple’s AMOLED panel procurement overtook Samsung’s reaching a 36% share, up from 19% in Q2’21, while Samsung’s share rose from 22% to 23%. Xiaomi was #3 in Q3’21 with a 10% share, down from 16%.

The TV market in the second half of 2021 is slowing down, which is the main factor in an increasing oversupply in the LCD industry. Because of the long-time lag required to bring new capacity online, the pandemic-driven supply shortage that started in 2020 extended to the middle of this year, but panel supplies continued to increase in Q3 despite the industry shifting to oversupply. Even a slowdown in Q4 2021 will not absorb an inventory overhang which will persist into 2022.

DSCC has released its latest Quarterly OLED Shipment Report and extended shipment and revenue forecasts to 2026. DSCC forecasts $61B in OLED panel revenue through 2026, fueled by double-digit unit and revenue CAGR growth for notebook PCs, monitors and tablets.

The latest turn of the Crystal Cycle has been characterized by several unprecedented developments: the largest price increase from trough to peak, the longest period of rising prices and the first time TV prices increased. Now we can add another item to the list: the largest price drop in a month. LCD TV panel prices fell in September at their fastest rate ever on a percentage basis and have now lost more than half the gains that they achieved in the long up-cycle from May 2020 to June 2021.

DSCC has announced the agenda and speaker lineup for the 2021 AR/VR Display Forum, the first virtual conference and expo fully dedicated to the emerging display technologies for Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality. The event will take place over two days (November 3-4) and will highlight the trends and technologies that are shaping the industry. DSCC took the initiative to organize this event because the display is a key enabling component for both AR and VR. This Forum will hopefully help foster more collaboration. During the conference, our team will also present insights and the latest findings about the market and supply chain.

MiniLED backlights in LCDs can potentially offer numerous advantages over other flat panel display technologies, most notably in high brightness, high contrast ratio, lower power consumption than WOLED TV and higher efficiency. The superior performance makes MiniLED backlights attractive for use in a variety of applications, ranging from large TVs to IT applications. Automotive and industrial applications are also advantageously addressed by MiniLED backlight technologies due to their higher brightness and higher contrast ratio.

Display equipment suppliers continue to get healthy with all margins rising as revealed in DSCC’s latest Quarterly Display Supply Chain Financial Health Report. This is a result of the semiconductor side of the business enjoying record revenues and margins on strong demand from the semiconductor shortage with companies sold out and reporting extended leadtimes. In fact, some companies are reporting extended leadtimes for a number of components found in semiconductor and display equipment such as controller chips and materials such as quartz, ceramic and silicon carbide.

DSCC’s latest quarterly display capacity update should create a concern among large-area display suppliers and an opportunity for buyers. DSCC expects G7+ capacity to rise 10% in 2022 after a 13% increase in 2021. With LCD TV panel prices already falling rapidly, IT panel prices f

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