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(Yicai Global) June 13 -- BOE Technology Group, TCL China Star Optoelectronics Technology and other big Chinese liquid crystal display manufacturers are reducing output starting from this month to try and stop a freefall in prices caused by a global glut.

TCL China Star intends to continue with its production cuts until September, while Beijing-based BOE and HKC Optoelectronics Technology have not yet decided how long they will reduce output, Rong said. None of the three companies responded when contacted by Yicai Global.

LCD TV display shipments from China’s five largest panel manufacturers accounted for 68.5 percent of the global market in April, a new high, and they were expected to exceed 70 percent this year, according to Omdia.

But there is much less demand for notebook computers, monitors and TVs now that fewer people are working from home as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes and amid pressure from global inflation. This is driving prices down, said Li Yaqin, general manager of market research firm Sigmaintell.

In 2021, LCD panel prices are expected to climb in 1Q, remain flat in 2Q, and decline from 3Q. Backed by ongoing facility expansions, Chinese LCD panel makers should see a continuing rise in M/S. In addition, a recent blackout at the Japanese factory of NEG, a glass substrate maker, should also benefit Chinese firms.

LCD panel prices, which ended high in 2020, are expected to continue rising in 1Q21 on an anticipated decrease in glass substrate supply. On Dec 10, a power outage occurred at NEG’s Takatsuki plant in Japan. With normalization at the Takatsuki plant expected in 1Q21, domestic and Taiwanese panel makers’ sourcing of glass substrate is unlikely to proceed smoothly in the near future. In 2Q21, an acceleration in panel production alongside normalized supply of glass substrate should prevent LCD panel price growth. The rate of glass substrate supply excess is forecast to widen from 0.5% in 1Q21 to 3.6% in 2Q21.

LCD panel prices are forecast to decline from 3Q21, as supply should exceed demand. We expect supply excess for LCD panels to reach 3.2% in 3Q21 and 3.4% in 4Q21 on the back of ongoing production expansion at Chinese manufacturers.

Chinese LCD panel makers are to continue expanding their production capacity, centering on 8G-and-above facilities, in a bid to increase M/S. Given Korea’s withdrawal from the LCD arena, we expect the global number of LCD production facilities (8G or higher) to fall from 32 in 2020 to 31 in 2021 to 30 in 2022. On the other hand, with Chinese panel makers ramping up investment, the portion of Chinese manufacturers is to increase from 63% in 2020 to 68% in 2021 to 78% in 2022, with China coming to claim a market-leading position.

Of note, Chinese panel makers are highly likely to see M/S expansion in 1Q21, as they are insulated from the effects of NEG’s Takatsuki power outage. Chinese companies’ glass substrate supply chain has diversified to encompass Corning, AGC, and NEG (China, Xiamen plant).

The price of LCD display panels for TVs is still falling in November and is on the verge of falling back to the level at which it initially rose two years ago (in June 2020). Liu Yushi, a senior analyst at CINNO Research, told China State Grid reporters that the wave of “falling tide” may last until June this year. For related panel companies, after the performance surge in the past year, they will face pressure in 2022.

LCD display panel prices for TVs will remain at a high level throughout 2021 due to the high base of 13 consecutive months of increase, although the price of LCD display panels peaked in June last year and began to decline rapidly. Thanks to this, under the tight demand related to panel enterprises last year achieved substantial profit growth.

According to China State Grid, the annual revenue growth of major LCD display panel manufacturers in China (Shentianma A, TCL Technology, Peking Oriental A, Caihong Shares, Longteng Optoelectronics, AU, Inolux Optoelectronics, Hanyu Color Crystal) in 2021 is basically above double digits, and the net profit growth is also very obvious. Some small and medium-sized enterprises directly turn losses into profits. Leading enterprises such as BOE and TCL Technology more than doubled their net profit.

“There are two main reasons for the ideal performance of domestic display panel enterprises.” A color TV industry analyst believes that, on the one hand, under the effect of the epidemic, the demand for color TV and other electronic products surges, and the upstream raw materials are in shortage, which leads to the short supply of the panel industry, the price rises, and the corporate profits increase accordingly. In addition, as Samsung and LG, the two-panel giants, gradually withdrew from the LCD panel field, they put most of their energy and funds into the OLED(organic light-emitting diode) display panel industry, resulting in a serious shortage of LCD display panels, which objectively benefited China’s local LCD display panel manufacturers such as BOE and TCL China Star Optoelectronics.

Liu Yushi analyzed to reporters that relevant TV panel enterprises made outstanding achievements in 2021, and panel price rise is a very important contributing factor. In addition, three enterprises, such as BOE(BOE), CSOT(TCL China Star Optoelectronics) and HKC(Huike), accounted for 55% of the total shipments of LCD TV panels in 2021. It will be further raised to 60% in the first quarter of 2022. In other words, “simultaneous release of production capacity, expand market share, rising volume and price” is also one of the main reasons for the growth of these enterprises. However, entering the low demand in 2022, LCD TV panel prices continue to fall, and there is some uncertainty about whether the relevant panel companies can continue to grow.

According to Media data, in February this year, the monthly revenue of global large LCD panels has been a double decline of 6.80% month-on-month and 6.18% year-on-year, reaching $6.089 billion. Among them, TCL China Star and AU large-size LCD panel revenue maintained year-on-year growth, while BOE, Innolux, and LG large-size LCD panel monthly revenue decreased by 16.83%, 14.10%, and 5.51% respectively.

Throughout Q1, according to WitsView data, the average LCD TV panel price has been close to or below the average cost, and cash cost level, among which 32-inch LCD TV panel prices are 4.03% and 5.06% below cash cost, respectively; The prices of 43 and 65 inch LCD TV panels are only 0.46% and 3.42% higher than the cash cost, respectively.

The market decline trend is continuing, the reporter queried Omdia, WitsView, Sigmaintel(group intelligence consulting), Oviriwo, CINNO Research, and other institutions regarding the latest forecast data, the analysis results show that the price of the TV LCD panels is expected to continue to decline in April. According to CINNO Research, for example, prices for 32 -, 43 – and 55-inch LCD TV panels in April are expected to fall $1- $3 per screen from March to $37, $65, and $100, respectively. Prices of 65 – and 75-inch LCD TV panels will drop by $8 per screen to $152 and $242, respectively.

In the first quarter of this year, the retail volume of China’s color TV market was 9.03 million units, down 8.8% year on year. Retail sales totaled 28 billion yuan, down 10.1 percent year on year. Under the situation of volume drop, the industry expects this year color TV manufacturers will also set off a new round of LCD display panel prices war.

There’s a decent chance Samsung-branded LCD flat panels used in digital signage jobs were already being manufactured by other companies, but that will definitely be the case going forward, as Samsung Display exits the LCD display manufacturing business and turns fully to third-party suppliers for that product line.

The Korea Times reports Samsung Display will close its LCD manufacturing business in June, and instead market flat panels made by third-party suppliers, like China’s BOE Technology Group and Taiwan’s AU Optronics. Samsung had been signalling it was getting out of direct manufacturing by the end of this year, but that decision has been accelerated by falling LCD prices that make direct manufacturing unprofitable.

Samsung will instead focus on quantum dots displays, which have visual quality levels that rival OLEDs. Samsung is already using quantum dots as the key enhancing component to its premium QLED displays, which are LCDs with a quantum dots layer. But the company is also developing QD-OLEDS, which like the acronym suggests are quantum dots integrated with OLEDs to make hybrid panels. The main attribute with quantum dots is that technology is its ability to amplify brightness, which has been something of a limiter for OLEDs.

Samsung has been in the LCD business for three decades and was once the largest LCD TV panel supplier on the planet, but its market share is now just roughly two percent as lower cost, government-supported Chinese manufacturers have emerged and largely taken over.

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