how to make a lcd screen pricelist
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LCD panel prices have risen for 4 months in a row because of your home gaming? Since this year, the whole LCD panel market has smoked. Whether after the outbreak of the epidemic, LCD panel market prices rose for four months, or the panel giants in Japan and South Korea successively sold production lines, or the Chinese mainland listed companies frequently integrated acquisition, investment, and plant construction, all make the industry full of interesting.
LCD panel prices are already a fact. Since May this year, LCD panel prices have risen for four months in a row, making the whole industry chain dynamic. Why are LCD panels going up in price in a volatile 2020? The key factor lies in the imbalance between supply and demand.
The 43 inches and 55 inches rose more than double digits in August, reaching 13.7% each, and rose another $7 and $13, respectively, to $91 and $149, respectively, in September.
For larger sizes, overseas stocks remained strong, with prices for 65 inches and 75 inches rising $10 on average to $200 and $305 respectively in September.
The price of LCDS for large-size TVs of 70 inches or more hasn’t budged much. In addition, LTPS screens and AMOLED screens used in high-end phones have seen little or no increase in price.
As for October, LCD panel price increases are expected to moderate. The data shows that in October 32 inches or 2 dollars; Gains of 39.5 to 43 inches will shrink to $3;55 inches will fall back below $10; The 65-inch gain will narrow to $5.
During the epidemic, people stayed at home and had no way to go out for entertainment. They relied on TV sets, PCS, and game consoles for entertainment. After the resumption of economic work and production, the market of traditional home appliances picked up rapidly, and LCD production capacity was quickly digested.
However, due to the shutdown of most factories lasting 1-2 months during the epidemic period, LCD panel production capacity was limited, leading to insufficient production capacity in the face of the market outbreak, which eventually led to the market shortage and price increase for 4 consecutive months.
In fact, the last round of price rise of LCD panels was from 2016 to 2017, and its overall market price has continued to fall since 2018. Even in 2019, individual types have fallen below the material cost, and the whole industry has experienced a general operating loss. As a result, LCD makers have been looking for ways to improve margins since last year.
A return to a reasonable price range is the most talked about topic among panel makers in 2019, according to one practitioner. Some manufacturers for the serious loss of the product made the decision to reduce production or even stop production; Some manufacturers planned to raise the price, but due to the epidemic in 2020, the downstream demand was temporarily suppressed and the price increase was postponed. After the outbreak was contained in April, LCD prices began to rise in mid-to-late May.
This kind of price correction is in line with the law of industrial development. Only with reasonable profit space can the whole industry be stimulated to move forward.
In fact, the market price of LCD panels continued to decline in 2018-2019 because of the accelerated rise of China’s LCD industry and the influx of a large number of local manufacturers, which doubled the global LCD panel production capacity within a few years, but there was no suitable application market to absorb it. The result of excess capacity is oversupply, ultimately making LCD panel prices remain depressed.
Against this background, combined with the impact of the epidemic in 2020, the operating burden of LCD companies in Japan and South Korea has been further aggravated, and it is difficult to make profits in the production of LCD panels, so they have to announce the withdrawal of LCD business.
business in June 2022. In August, Sharp bought JDI Baishan, a plant in Ishikawa prefecture that makes liquid crystal display panels for smartphones. In early September, Samsung Display sold a majority stake in its SUZHOU LCD production plant to Starlight Electronics Technology, a unit of TCL Technology Group. LGD has not only pulled out of some of its production capacity but has announced that it will close its local production line in 2020. According to DSCC, a consultancy, the share of LCD production capacity in South Korea alone will fall from 19% to 7% between 2020 and 2021.
It is worth mentioning that in industry analysis, in view of the fact that Korean companies are good at using “dig through old bonus – selling high price – the development of new technology” the cycle of development mode, another 2020 out of the LCD production capacity, the main reason may be: taking the advantage of China’s expanding aggressively LCD manufacturers, Korean companies will own LCD panel production line hot sell, eliminating capacity liquid to extract its final value, and turning to the more profitable advantage of a new generation of display technologies, such as thinner, color display better OLED, etc. Samsung, for example, has captured more than 80% of the OLED market with its first-mover advantage.
From the perspective of production capacity, the launch of LCD tracks by major manufacturers in Japan and South Korea must reduce some production capacity in the short term, which to some extent induces market price fluctuations. In the long run, some of the Japanese and Korean LCD production capacity has been bought by Chinese manufacturers, coupled with frequent investment in recent years, the overall capacity is sure to recover as before, or even more than before. But now it will take time to expand the production layout, which more or less will cause supply imbalance, the industry needs to be cautious.
The LCD panel industry started in the United States and then gradually moved to Japan, South Korea, China, and Taiwan. At present, the proportion of production capacity in The Chinese mainland has reached 52% in 2020, and there are leading LCD panel products in China represented by BOE, Huxing Optoelectronics. Meanwhile, the production capacity layout of BOE, Huike, Huxing Optoelectronics, and other manufacturers has been basically completed, making industrial integration a necessity.
On the one hand, South Korean enterprises out of the LCD track, the domestic factory horse enclosure, plant expansion action. While LCDs may not sell as well as “upstart” flexible screens, respondents believe they are still strong enough in the traditional home appliance market to warrant continued investment. Zhao Bin, general manager of TCL Huaxing Development Center, has said publicly that the next-generation display technology will be mature in four to five years, but the commercialization of products may not take place until a decade later. “LCD will still be the mainstream in this decade,” he said.
On the other hand, there is no risk of neck jam in China’s LCD panel industry, which is generally controllable. In mainland China, there will be 21 production lines capable of producing 32-inch or larger LCD panels by 2021, accounting for about two-thirds of the global total. In terms of the proportion of production capacity, the Chinese mainland accounted for 42% of the global LCD panel in 2019, 51% this year, and will continue to climb to 63% next year.
Of course, building factories and expanding production cannot be accomplished overnight. In the process of production capacity recovery, it is predicted that there will be several price fluctuations, and the cost may be passed on to the downstream LCD panel manufacturers or consumers when the price rises greatly, which requires continuous attention.
The price of LCD display panels for TVs is still falling in November and is on the verge of falling back to the level at which it initially rose two years ago (in June 2020). Liu Yushi, a senior analyst at CINNO Research, told China State Grid reporters that the wave of “falling tide” may last until June this year. For related panel companies, after the performance surge in the past year, they will face pressure in 2022.
LCD display panel prices for TVs will remain at a high level throughout 2021 due to the high base of 13 consecutive months of increase, although the price of LCD display panels peaked in June last year and began to decline rapidly. Thanks to this, under the tight demand related to panel enterprises last year achieved substantial profit growth.
According to China State Grid, the annual revenue growth of major LCD display panel manufacturers in China (Shentianma A, TCL Technology, Peking Oriental A, Caihong Shares, Longteng Optoelectronics, AU, Inolux Optoelectronics, Hanyu Color Crystal) in 2021 is basically above double digits, and the net profit growth is also very obvious. Some small and medium-sized enterprises directly turn losses into profits. Leading enterprises such as BOE and TCL Technology more than doubled their net profit.
Take BOE as an example. According to the 2021 financial report released by BOE A, BOE achieved annual revenue of 219.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 61.79%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies reached 25.831 billion yuan, up 412.96% year on year. “The growth is mainly due to the overall high economic performance of the panel industry throughout the year, and the acquisition of the CLP Panda Nanjing and Chengdu lines,” said Xu Tao, chief electronics analyst at Citic Securities.
In his opinion, as BOE dynamically optimizes its product structure, and its flexible OLED continues to enter the supply chain of major customers, BOE‘s market share as the panel leader is expected to increase further and extend to the Internet of Things, which is optimistic about the company’s development in the medium and long term.
According to the performance report of TCL Technology, the revenue of TCL Technology reached 163.5 billion yuan last year, with a year-on-year growth of 112.8%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies reached 10.06 billion yuan, up 129.3% year on year.
TCL explained that the major reasons for the significant year-on-year growth in revenue and profit were the significant year-on-year growth of the company’s semiconductor display business shipment area, the average price of major products and product profitability, and the optimization of the business mix and customer structure further enhanced the contribution of product revenue.
“There are two main reasons for the ideal performance of domestic display panel enterprises.” A color TV industry analyst believes that, on the one hand, under the effect of the epidemic, the demand for color TV and other electronic products surges, and the upstream raw materials are in shortage, which leads to the short supply of the panel industry, the price rises, and the corporate profits increase accordingly. In addition, as Samsung and LG, the two-panel giants, gradually withdrew from the LCD panel field, they put most of their energy and funds into the OLED(organic light-emitting diode) display panel industry, resulting in a serious shortage of LCD display panels, which objectively benefited China’s local LCD display panel manufacturers such as BOE and TCL China Star Optoelectronics.
Liu Yushi analyzed to reporters that relevant TV panel enterprises made outstanding achievements in 2021, and panel price rise is a very important contributing factor. In addition, three enterprises, such as BOE(BOE), CSOT(TCL China Star Optoelectronics) and HKC(Huike), accounted for 55% of the total shipments of LCD TV panels in 2021. It will be further raised to 60% in the first quarter of 2022. In other words, “simultaneous release of production capacity, expand market share, rising volume and price” is also one of the main reasons for the growth of these enterprises. However, entering the low demand in 2022, LCD TV panel prices continue to fall, and there is some uncertainty about whether the relevant panel companies can continue to grow.
According to Media data, in February this year, the monthly revenue of global large LCD panels has been a double decline of 6.80% month-on-month and 6.18% year-on-year, reaching $6.089 billion. Among them, TCL China Star and AU large-size LCD panel revenue maintained year-on-year growth, while BOE, Innolux, and LG large-size LCD panel monthly revenue decreased by 16.83%, 14.10%, and 5.51% respectively.
Throughout Q1, according to WitsView data, the average LCD TV panel price has been close to or below the average cost, and cash cost level, among which 32-inch LCD TV panel prices are 4.03% and 5.06% below cash cost, respectively; The prices of 43 and 65 inch LCD TV panels are only 0.46% and 3.42% higher than the cash cost, respectively.
The market decline trend is continuing, the reporter queried Omdia, WitsView, Sigmaintel(group intelligence consulting), Oviriwo, CINNO Research, and other institutions regarding the latest forecast data, the analysis results show that the price of the TV LCD panels is expected to continue to decline in April. According to CINNO Research, for example, prices for 32 -, 43 – and 55-inch LCD TV panels in April are expected to fall $1- $3 per screen from March to $37, $65, and $100, respectively. Prices of 65 – and 75-inch LCD TV panels will drop by $8 per screen to $152 and $242, respectively.
“In the face of weak overall demand, major end brands requested panel factories to reduce purchase volumes in March due to high inventory pressure, which led to the continued decline in panel prices in April.” Beijing Di Xian Information Consulting Co., LTD. Vice general manager Yi Xianjing so analysis said.
“Since 2021, international logistics capacity continues to be tight, international customers have a long delivery cycle, some orders in the second half of the year were transferred to the first half of the year, pushing up the panel price in the first half of the year but also overdraft the demand in the second half of the year, resulting in the panel price began to decline from June last year,” Liu Yush told reporters, and the situation between Russia and Ukraine has suddenly escalated this year. It also further affected the recovery of demand in Europe, thus prolonging the downward trend in prices. Based on the current situation, Liu predicted that the bottom of TV panel prices will come in June 2022, but the inflection point will be delayed if further factors affect global demand and lead to additional cuts by brands.
With the price of TV panels falling to the cash cost line, in Liu’s opinion, some overseas production capacity with old equipment and poor profitability will gradually cut production. The corresponding profits of mainland panel manufacturers will inevitably be affected. However, due to the advantages in scale and cost, there is no urgent need for mainland panel manufacturers to reduce the dynamic rate. It is estimated that Q2’s dynamic level is only 3%-4% lower than Q1’s. “We don’t have much room to switch production because the prices of IT panels are dropping rapidly.”
Ovirivo analysts also pointed out that the current TV panel factory shipment pressure and inventory pressure may increase. “In the first quarter, the production line activity rate is at a high level, and the panel factory has entered the stage of loss. If the capacity is not adjusted, the panel factory will face the pressure of further decline in panel prices and increased losses.”
In the first quarter of this year, the retail volume of China’s color TV market was 9.03 million units, down 8.8% year on year. Retail sales totaled 28 billion yuan, down 10.1 percent year on year. Under the situation of volume drop, the industry expects this year color TV manufacturers will also set off a new round of LCD display panel prices war.
LCD TV panel prices have reached all-time lows but they continue to decline, and although the pace of decline is slowing in the third quarter, we now forecast that the industry will have an “L-shaped” recovery in the fourth quarter. In other words, no recovery at all until 2023. The ‘perfect storm’ of a continued oversupply, near-universally weak demand and excessive inventory throughout the supply chain has combined, and every screen size of TV panel has reached an all-time low price. Although fab utilization has slowed sharply in July, we do not see any signal to suggest that prices can increase any time soon.
Prices for all TV panel sizes fluctuated and are forecast to fluctuate between 2020 and 2022. The period from March 2020 to July 2021 saw the biggest price increases, when a 65" UHD panel cost between 171 and 288 U.S. dollars. In the fourth quarter of 2021, such prices fell and are expected to drop to an even lower amount by March 2022.Read moreLCD TV panel prices worldwide from January 2020 to March 2022, by size(in U.S. dollars)Characteristic32" HD43" FHD49"/50" UHD55" UHD65" UHD------
DSCC. (January 10, 2022). LCD TV panel prices worldwide from January 2020 to March 2022, by size (in U.S. dollars) [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved February 13, 2023, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1288400/lcd-tv-panel-price-by-size/
DSCC. "LCD TV panel prices worldwide from January 2020 to March 2022, by size (in U.S. dollars)." Chart. January 10, 2022. Statista. Accessed February 13, 2023. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1288400/lcd-tv-panel-price-by-size/
DSCC. (2022). LCD TV panel prices worldwide from January 2020 to March 2022, by size (in U.S. dollars). Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: February 13, 2023. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1288400/lcd-tv-panel-price-by-size/
DSCC. "Lcd Tv Panel Prices Worldwide from January 2020 to March 2022, by Size (in U.S. Dollars)." Statista, Statista Inc., 10 Jan 2022, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1288400/lcd-tv-panel-price-by-size/
DSCC, LCD TV panel prices worldwide from January 2020 to March 2022, by size (in U.S. dollars) Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1288400/lcd-tv-panel-price-by-size/ (last visited February 13, 2023)
LCD TV panel prices worldwide from January 2020 to March 2022, by size (in U.S. dollars) [Graph], DSCC, January 10, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1288400/lcd-tv-panel-price-by-size/
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Prices have been basically stalled since the retail wars of the 2006 holidays, when LCD TVs, once luxury items, went almost mainstream. But prices will probably plunge again by the end of the year.
A 42-inch set selling right now for an average of $1,877 could be going for $1,175 -- a drop of more than 35% -- just in time for the winter holidays, the ISuppli industry analyst group said Tuesday. Already, at some discount and membership stores, you can find an off-brand 42-inch LCD set for under $1,000.
“I have a 20-inch LCD set across from me that was $1,500 just four years ago. Now, I could get it for $149,” said analyst Richard Doherty at Envisioneering Group. “The prices have fallen faster than any consumer electronics item in years, with the exception of DVD players.”
If the price falls as much as expected this year, the average 42-inch LCD set will cost only about $80 more than a plasma flat-screen of the same size. For years, plasma was the undisputed flat-screen king, largely because the technology was far cheaper. But now LCDs could rule -- especially among the environmentally and weight-conscious.
“LCD TVs use a lot less electricity,” Doherty said. “People who consider themselves green tend to buy LCD. And the weight of two 37-inch LCD TVs are about equal to that of one plasma set the same size.”
This year, the number of LCD screens -- each of which contains a liquid crystal gel divided into hundreds of thousands of individual pixels -- shipping from factories will reach 75.2 million, up from 52.7 million in 2006, ISuppli said. And the price of the screens to TV manufacturers is forecast to fall 17% in just the first half of the year.
“At the beginning of 2006, we were seeing 42-inch LCDs at about $3,500 or $4,000,” said Ross Rubin, an analyst at NPD Group. “But they were from just a handful of manufacturers. By the end of the year, many more manufacturers were offering LCDs and there was very aggressive retail discounting during the holidays.”
What’s good for shoppers, though, doesn’t necessarily make manufacturers and retailers happy. In December, “some of the 32-inch brands were as low as $500,” said Riddhi Patel, an analyst with ISuppli. “That’s an awesome price for the consumer, but it was hard on everyone in the TV supply chain because it was such a low profit margin.”
At least five LCD display factories at the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak are suffering production slowdowns, which is turn is expected to have an effect on the supply and pricing of displays used in PCs and LCD TVs.
Five LCD fabs reside in Wuhan, China, which has basically been shut down to prevent the coronavirus from spreading. Informa Tech’s IHS Markit service said Friday that they expect that the capacity utilization for all LCD fabs in China could fall by at least 10 percent and by as much as 20 percent during February.
As a result, LCD panel prices are expected to rise. IHS said that preliminary estimates say that per-panel prices could rise $1 to $2, but could go as high as $3 to $5. That might not sound like much, but manufacturers typically tack on extra profit margins at each stage of production, potentially raising sale prices somewhat higher.
IHS estimates that about 55 percent of all LCD panels in the world will ship from China in 2020, meaning that the Chinese outbreak will have worldwide effects on the supply chain. Five fabs are in Wuhan itself, including two fabs owned by China Star Optoelectronics Technology, two owned by Tianma, and one BOE fab.
“Display facilities in Wuhan currently are dealing with the very real impacts of the coronavirus outbreak,” said David Hsieh, senior director of displays, at IHS Markit technology research, in a statement. “These factories are facing shortages of both labor and key components as a result of mandates designed to limit the contagion’s spread. In the face of these challenges, top display suppliers in China have informed our experts that a near-term production decline is unavoidable.”
IHS reported seeing panic buying, including doublebooking, where a buyer will buy as much as they need from two suppliers just to ensure that they’ll be able to get the supplies they require. Even if the supplies are there, IHS also said that production at several key third-party LCD module suppliers has now ceased, severely impacting panel production throughout the country.Besides the slowdown in production at fabs that are already operating, IHS said that it expects new fabs to not come on line as quickly as expected.
All this is expected to have a direct effect on LCD panel pricing, and possibly ripple effects through laptop manufacturing as well. It’s worth noting that while Intel and AMD did not cite coronavirus effects among their forecasts, Microsoft did, with a broader than usual forecast for the second half of the year.
The World Health Organization has declared a global emergency surrounding coronavirus, and the U.S. State Department has banned travel to the country. More than 7,000 people have become infected, with nearly 200 deaths.
I’m hearing from some industry friends that LCD display panel prices are rising – which on the surface likely seems incongruous, given the economic slowdown and widespread indications that a lot of 2020 and 2021 display projects went on hold because of COVID-19.
On the other hand, people are watching a lot more TV, and I saw a guy at Costco the other day with two big-ass LCD TVs on his trolley. And a whole bunch of desktop monitors were in demand in 2020 to facilitate Work From Home. So demand for LCD displays is up outside of commercial purposes.
Organizations that pay attention to supply chains and pricing confirm prices ended high in 2020 and are expected to climb again this quarter and flatten out later in the year.
The Korean business portal BusinessKorea says one explanation was a power outage that shut down a big glass substrate factory in Japan, which was serious enough that the plant will only get back to normal sometime in this quarter.
Continuing strong demand and concerns about a glass shortage resulting from NEG’s power outage have led to a continuing increase in LCD TV panel prices in Q1. Announcements by the Korean panel makers that they will maintain production of LCDs and delay their planned shutdown of LCD lines has not prevented prices from continuing to rise.
Panel prices increased more than 20% for selected TV sizes in Q3 2020 compared to Q2, and by 27% in Q4 2020 compared to Q3, and we now expect that average LCD TV panel prices in Q1 2021 will increase by another 9%.
Prices increased in Q4 for all sizes of TV panels, with massive % increases in sizes from 32” to 55” ranging from 28% to 38%. Prices for 65” and 75” increased at a slower rate, by 19% and 8% respectively, as capacity has continued to increase on those sizes with Gen 10.5 expansions.
Prices for every size of TV panel will increase in Q1 at a slower rate, ranging from 4% for 75” to 13% for 43”. Although we continue to expect that the long-term downward trend will resume in the second quarter of 2021, we no longer expect that panel prices will come close to the all-time lows seen earlier this year. The situation remains dynamic, and the pandemic may continue to affect both supply and demand.
TV panel prices however, continued to rise at an ‘unprecedented’ rate again, far ahead of our expectations, and panel producers do not seem to be hesitant about continuing to push prices further.
Given that TV set demand continues to outstrip production capacity, panel producers are already expecting to raise prices again in 1Q, typically a sequentially weaker quarter. There is a breaking point at which TV set brands will forego requested panel price increases in order to preserve what is left of margins, and with the increasing cost of TV set panel inventory, we expect TV set producers to become unprofitable relatively quickly.
Does that mean they will stop buying and face losing market share to those that are willing to pay higher prices to see unit volume growth? Eventually, but heading into the holidays it doesn’t seem likely this year, so we expect TV panel prices to rise again in December.
With a lot of the buyer market for digital signage technology financial wheezing its way into 2021, rising hardware prices are likely even less welcomed than in more normal times. But the prices for display hardware, in particular, are dramatically lower they were five years ago, and even more so looking back 10-15 years.
It may seem odd in the face of stalled economies and stalled AV projects, but the costs of LCD display products are on the rise, according to a report from Digital Supply Chain Consulting, or DSCC.
Demand for LCD products remains strong , says DSCC, at the same time as shortages are deepening for glass substrates and driver integrated circuits. Announcements by the Korean panel makers that they will maintain production of LCDs and delay their planned shutdown of LCD lines has not prevented prices from continuing to rise.
I assume, but absolutely don’t know for sure, that panel pricing that affects the much larger consumer market must have a similar impact on commercial displays, or what researchers seem to term public information displays.
Panel prices increased more than 20% for selected TV sizes in Q3 2020 compared to Q2, and by 27% in Q4 2020 compared to Q3, we now expect that average LCD TV panel prices in Q1 2021 will increase by another 12%.
The first chart shows our latest TV panel price update, with prices increasing across the board from a low in May 2020 to an expected peak in May/June of this year. Last month’s update predicted a peak in February/March. However, our forecast for the peak has been increased and pushed out after AGC reported a major accident at a glass plant in Korea and amid continuing problems with driver IC shortages.
The inflection point for this cycle, the month of the most significant M/M price increases, was passed in September 2020, and the price increases have been slowing down each month since then, but the January increase averaged 4.1%. Prices in February 2021 have reached levels last seen exactly three years ago in February 2018.
Prices increased in Q4 for all sizes of TV panels, with massive percentage increases in sizes from 32” to 55” ranging from 28% to 38%. Prices for 65” and 75” increased at a slower rate, by 19% and 8% respectively, as capacity has continued to increase on those sizes with Gen 10.5 expansions.
Prices for every size of TV panel will increase in Q1 at a slower rate, ranging from 5% for 75” to 16% for 43”, and we now expect that prices will continue to increase in Q2, with the increases ranging from 3% to 6% on a Q/Q basis. We now expect that prices will peak in Q2 and will start to decline in Q3, but the situation remains fluid.
All that said, LCD panels are way less costly, way lighter and slimmer, and generally look way better than the ones being used 10 years ago, so prices is a relative problem.
If you’ve been in the market for a new LCD computer monitor to replace the hulking CRT monitor taking up desk space, you’ve noticed the prices falling rapidly.
But analysts and executives say this fall might be a very good time to buy that LCD monitor, because the roller-coaster ride of prices could firm by next year.
“With LCD monitors, a lot of the pricing has to do with the panel manufacturers, who are mostly in China, Korea and Taiwan,” said Adam Swantoko, senior account manager with AOC Displays.
Fremont-based AOC Displays is the American subsidiary of the largest computer monitor maker in the world, TPV Technology Ltd. of Hong Kong. TPV supplies LCD monitors to the major PC makers of the world as well as directly to consumers through the Envision product line, whose U.S. headquarters also is in Fremont.
“The pricing of the panels, at the component level, has come down 20 percent in the last year in the case of 15-inch panels and 30 percent for 17-inch panels. And that relates directly to the price of LCD monitors at retail,” Swantoko said. “Between now and the end of the year we probably won’t see much difference, although panel prices of 15-inch and 17-inch are coming up a little.”
Analyst Sweta Dash of iSuppli, a market research firm, said most monitor manufacturers have too much panel inventory and are taking losses on the lowest advertised LCD monitor prices. “That’s the lowest it can go,” she said.
Some of the suppliers are subsidiaries of Beijing Orient Electronics Group, the Chinese government’s holding company for many electronic enterprises, including TPV Technology.
“Every six months a new factory comes on line and demand is not really able to keep up,” Swantoko said. To unload the inventory — and win market share not only as a factory but as a country — “these manufacturers are dropping prices trying to vie for business.”
Philips Electronics, which has an LCD monitor unit based in Seoul, South Korea, had been vying with TPV to be the major supplier of computer monitors to PC manufacturers.
This summer, TPV paid $2 billion to acquire Philips’ operation, which manufactures LCD monitors for computer makers that later add branding to the generic monitors.
The total LCD market, including those used for small consumer items from cell phones to computer and laptop monitors to the larger big-screen TVs, is $19 billion to $20 billion a year, according to analyst Troy Peery of Oppenheimer & Co. in New York.
LCD stands for liquid crystal display. The technology that allows monitors to be sleek, light and 4 inches thin has to do with the molecular nature of liquid crystals.
Neither pure liquid — in which molecules float freely among each other — nor pure solid — in which molecules stay in fixed relation to each other — liquid crystals have some of both properties.
A liquid crystal has some fixed molecules that float among other liquid molecules, and it responds in a predictable way to electric currents by passing light through the crystals when stimulated by electricity.
The once revolutionary technology is now found in hundreds of consumer goods from $2 watches and calculators to cell phone handsets, laptop computers, automobile dashboards and sophisticated graphics computer monitors.
Market researcher DisplaySearch said average prices for 15-inch monitors fell about 20 percent in the second quarter (or early summer) to $228, while 17-inch monitors fell to $285 from above $300. Predictably, LCD monitors also grabbed market share from the standard cathode ray tube monitors, DisplaySearch said, such that 65 percent of all new personal computers sold are sold with LCD monitors.
Large LCD panel prices have been continuously increasing for last 10 months due to an increase in demand and tight supply. This has helped the LCD industry to recover from drastic panel price reductions, revenue and profit loss in 2019. It has also contributed to the growth of QD and miniLED LCD TV. Strong LCD TV panel demand is expected to continue in 2021, but component shortages, supply constraints, and very high panel price increase can still create uncertainties.
It was earlier anticipated that price increases would decelerate in 2Q, but now the price increase is accelerating compared to 1Q, according to a research by DSCC. Panel prices increased by 27 percent in 4Q20 compared to 3Q and slowed down to 14.5 percent in 1Q21 compared to 4Q, but the current estimate is that average LCD TV panel prices in 2Q21 will increase by another 17 percent. The prices are expected to peak sometime in 3Q21.
There has been a surge in prices across the board from a low in May 2020 to a high point in June 2021 which does not represent the peak. There have been multiple inflection points for this cycle: the first inflection point, the month of the biggest MoM price increases, was passed in September 2020, and the price increase slowed down, then started to accelerate again in January 2021, and there is another slowdown starting in May 2021. Prices in May 2021 have reached levels last seen in July 2017.
Prices increased in 1Q21 for all sizes of TV panels, with double-digit percentage increases in sizes from 32- to 65-inch ranging from 12-18 percent. Prices for 75-inch increased by 8 percent as capacity has continued to increase on Gen 10.5 lines, where 75-inch is an efficient six-cut. Prices for every size of TV panel will continue to increase in 2Q at an even faster rate, ranging from 12 percent for 75-inch to 24 percent for 32-inch. The prices are expected to continue to increase in 3Q.
The current upturn in the crystal cycle has seen the biggest trough-to-peak price increases for LCD TV panels, and the recent acceleration of prices has further extended this record. Comparing the forecast for June 2021 panel prices with the prices in May 2020, there is a trough-to-peak increases from 34 percent for 75-inch to 181 percent for 32-inch, with an average of 111 percent. In comparison, the average trough-to-peak increase of the 2016 to 2017 cycle was 48 percent, and prior cycles saw smaller increases.
Before the current upswing, the largest panels sold with an area premium, but the current cycle has flipped that upside down. Whereas in May 2020, 75-inch panels sold at an area premium of USD 77 per square meter higher than the 32-inch panel price, as of May 2021, they are selling at a USD 65 discount on an area basis. This means that those Gen 10.5 fabs could earn higher revenues from making 32-inch panels than from 75-inch panels. The pattern for 65-inch is even more severe, and 65-inch is now selling at a USD 69 per square meter discount (alternately, a 22% area discount) compared to 32-inch.
The improved pricing for LCD TV panels has already improved the profitability of panel makers. It will continue to drive their profits even higher, especially the two prominent Taiwanese players, who have Gen 7.5 and Gen 8.5 fabs but no Gen 10.5 fabs. Chinese panel makers HKC and CHOT have a similar industrial profile and stand to benefit greatly as well. The leading companies with Gen 10.5 fabs (BOE, CSOT and Foxconn/Sharp) stand to benefit less because the price increases on the largest sizes are more modest, but every LCD panel maker is doing well.
TV price index has increased from its all-time low of 42 in May 2020 to 87 in May 2021, and it is expected to reach 89 in June and over 90 in 3Q21 before declining in 4Q. The YoY increase has surpassed 100 percent in May 2021. It will remain at elevated levels throughout the second half of 2021.
In addition to being an exceptionally large upcycle, the current upswing matches some of the longest stretches of increasing prices ever seen, more than a full year from trough to peak. The length of the upswing can be attributed to several factors: glass and driver IC shortages, the pandemic-driven demand or the potential for Korean fab downsizing.
TV makers continued to make strong profits in 1Q21 despite increasing panel prices. The TV market typically slows down in 1Q and 2Q. TV maker revenues declined seasonally in 1Q but less than usual, and the operating margins for both Samsung and LGE increased sequentially. Samsung’s CE division operating profits exceeded USD 1 billion for the quarter for only the second time ever. With demand remaining strong, TV makers have weathered the increase in panel prices and remained very profitable.
There is a surge in LCD equipment spending to respond to dramatically improved market conditions in the LCD market. DSCC sees LCD revenues rising 32 percent in 2021 to USD 112 billion on strong unit and area growth with prices and profitability rebounding to or even exceeding the 2017 levels. With LCD suppliers able to sell everything they can make at attractive margins; it should be no surprise that most LCD manufacturers are looking to expand capacity.
However, unlike previous upturns when many new fabs were built, in this upturn panel suppliers are looking to stretch their capacity through smaller investments, simplifying their processes and debottlenecking. Having said that, there will be two new Gen 8.6 mega fabs being built. The result versus last quarter is a 10 percent or a USD 2.2 billion increase in 2020-2024 LCD spending from USD 21.8 billion to USD 24 billion. The 2021 LCD equipment spending forecast is up 15 percent versus last quarter’s forecast to USD 10 billion, with 2021 LCD equipment spending up 125 percent versus 2021. In addition, 2022 was upgraded by 28 percent to USD 3.5 billion.
Although there is a healthy upgrade in LCD equipment spending in 2021 and 2022, the outlook for 2022-2024 spending is still significantly lower than in previous years, resulting in tighter capacity and slower price reductions in the next downturn. In addition, with Korean LCD suppliers expected to reduce their LCD capacity and convert to potentially higher margin OLEDs, the outlook for LCD pricing and profitability looks quite healthy, which may result in even more equipment spending, especially as miniLEDs gain acceptance.
An unfortunate and untimely string of accidents has created a historic tight glass market and caused a very unusual industry average price increase of several percent. In last few months top glass suppliers Corning, NEG, and AGC have all experienced production problems. A tank failure at Corning, a power outage at NEG, and an accident at an AGC glass plant all resulted in glass supply constraints when demand and production has been increasing.
In March 2021 Corning announced its plan to increase glass prices in 2Q21. Corning has also increased supply by starting glass tank in Korea to supply China’s Gen 10.5 fabs that are ramping up. Most of the growth in capacity is coming from Gen 8.6 and Gen 10.5 fabs in China.
Besides glass there have been other component shortages including driver ICs and polarizers. The lack of investment in polarizers and base films in 2019 caught the industry off guard when demand turned around in 2020. Multiple other materials are also in tight supply and are affecting different makers in different ways, supporting inflationary price trends.
Widespread component supply shortages could impact availability on LCD TV panels from CSOT and Innolux. The display panel manufacturers have warned that supplies of panels are expected to be tight throughout the year.
According to Li Dongsheng, chairman, TCL, panel shortages will continue in 1H21, following conditions already hampered last year during the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The situation for 2H21 remains to be seen but for 2021 overall panel supply will be tight.
James Yang, president, Innolux, has warned of a shortage in LCD panels caused by strong demand for LCD coming out of the global crisis and the conditions are expected to continue through 2021. Innolux has seen shortages in LCD components including power semiconductors, driver ICs and glass substrates that have kept production below capacity. Shortages of ICs and semiconductors could continue right up to the 1H22.
Ironically, prior to the run-on LCD panel supplies, manufacturers were faced with the dilemma of overproduction causing a glut in inventory, which was driving prices artificially lower. This was the result of giant new LCD fabs coming online in China and other areas of Asia.
Panel makers, being cognizant of that threat, are expected to produce panels at a more tempered pace to keep margins healthy. LCD panel prices continued to rise in March after moving up in February.
Almost all Chinese panel makers are doing everything they can to incrementally increase their current factories’ capacities through productivity enhancements and new equipment purchases for debottlenecking or capacity expansions. For the same reasons, South Korean panel makers continue to delay shutting down their domestic LCD TV factories.
TV manufacturers have been moving aggressively to replenish inventories of LCD panels to meet strong sales of TVs and other devices to meeting escalating demand, particularly in the United States and Europe.
An increase in demand for larger size TVs in 2H20 combined with component shortages has pushed the market to supply constraint and caused continuous panel price increases from June 2020 to March 2021. The panel price increase resulting in higher costs for TV brands. It has also made it difficult for lower priced brands to acquire enough panels to offer lower priced TVs. Further, panel suppliers are giving priority to top brands with larger orders during supply constraint.
For 3 years, from 2017 to 2020, LCD panel makers suffered through a continuous pattern of price declines interrupted only with brief respites. With the COVID-19 demand surge assisted by shortages in glass and DDICs, panel prices are spiking. Korean, Taiwanese, and Chinese panel makers are reporting robust margins in 1Q 2021 and the good news is anticipated for panel makers to get even better in 2Q.
Although multiple caveats remain about how both supply and demand will trend over the coming months, the modeled glut level is a leading indicator that the next cycle is now on its way, which implies falling prices, utilization, and profitability. Industry players should consider the implications when planning business strategies for the next 2 years.
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