lcd panel price index factory

The price of LCD display panels for TVs is still falling in November and is on the verge of falling back to the level at which it initially rose two years ago (in June 2020). Liu Yushi, a senior analyst at CINNO Research, told China State Grid reporters that the wave of “falling tide” may last until June this year. For related panel companies, after the performance surge in the past year, they will face pressure in 2022.

LCD display panel prices for TVs will remain at a high level throughout 2021 due to the high base of 13 consecutive months of increase, although the price of LCD display panels peaked in June last year and began to decline rapidly. Thanks to this, under the tight demand related to panel enterprises last year achieved substantial profit growth.

According to China State Grid, the annual revenue growth of major LCD display panel manufacturers in China (Shentianma A, TCL Technology, Peking Oriental A, Caihong Shares, Longteng Optoelectronics, AU, Inolux Optoelectronics, Hanyu Color Crystal) in 2021 is basically above double digits, and the net profit growth is also very obvious. Some small and medium-sized enterprises directly turn losses into profits. Leading enterprises such as BOE and TCL Technology more than doubled their net profit.

Take BOE as an example. According to the 2021 financial report released by BOE A, BOE achieved annual revenue of 219.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 61.79%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies reached 25.831 billion yuan, up 412.96% year on year. “The growth is mainly due to the overall high economic performance of the panel industry throughout the year, and the acquisition of the CLP Panda Nanjing and Chengdu lines,” said Xu Tao, chief electronics analyst at Citic Securities.

In his opinion, as BOE dynamically optimizes its product structure, and its flexible OLED continues to enter the supply chain of major customers, BOE‘s market share as the panel leader is expected to increase further and extend to the Internet of Things, which is optimistic about the company’s development in the medium and long term.

TCL explained that the major reasons for the significant year-on-year growth in revenue and profit were the significant year-on-year growth of the company’s semiconductor display business shipment area, the average price of major products and product profitability, and the optimization of the business mix and customer structure further enhanced the contribution of product revenue.

“There are two main reasons for the ideal performance of domestic display panel enterprises.” A color TV industry analyst believes that, on the one hand, under the effect of the epidemic, the demand for color TV and other electronic products surges, and the upstream raw materials are in shortage, which leads to the short supply of the panel industry, the price rises, and the corporate profits increase accordingly. In addition, as Samsung and LG, the two-panel giants, gradually withdrew from the LCD panel field, they put most of their energy and funds into the OLED(organic light-emitting diode) display panel industry, resulting in a serious shortage of LCD display panels, which objectively benefited China’s local LCD display panel manufacturers such as BOE and TCL China Star Optoelectronics.

Liu Yushi analyzed to reporters that relevant TV panel enterprises made outstanding achievements in 2021, and panel price rise is a very important contributing factor. In addition, three enterprises, such as BOE(BOE), CSOT(TCL China Star Optoelectronics) and HKC(Huike), accounted for 55% of the total shipments of LCD TV panels in 2021. It will be further raised to 60% in the first quarter of 2022. In other words, “simultaneous release of production capacity, expand market share, rising volume and price” is also one of the main reasons for the growth of these enterprises. However, entering the low demand in 2022, LCD TV panel prices continue to fall, and there is some uncertainty about whether the relevant panel companies can continue to grow.

According to Media data, in February this year, the monthly revenue of global large LCD panels has been a double decline of 6.80% month-on-month and 6.18% year-on-year, reaching $6.089 billion. Among them, TCL China Star and AU large-size LCD panel revenue maintained year-on-year growth, while BOE, Innolux, and LG large-size LCD panel monthly revenue decreased by 16.83%, 14.10%, and 5.51% respectively.

Throughout Q1, according to WitsView data, the average LCD TV panel price has been close to or below the average cost, and cash cost level, among which 32-inch LCD TV panel prices are 4.03% and 5.06% below cash cost, respectively; The prices of 43 and 65 inch LCD TV panels are only 0.46% and 3.42% higher than the cash cost, respectively.

The market decline trend is continuing, the reporter queried Omdia, WitsView, Sigmaintel(group intelligence consulting), Oviriwo, CINNO Research, and other institutions regarding the latest forecast data, the analysis results show that the price of the TV LCD panels is expected to continue to decline in April. According to CINNO Research, for example, prices for 32 -, 43 – and 55-inch LCD TV panels in April are expected to fall $1- $3 per screen from March to $37, $65, and $100, respectively. Prices of 65 – and 75-inch LCD TV panels will drop by $8 per screen to $152 and $242, respectively.

“In the face of weak overall demand, major end brands requested panel factories to reduce purchase volumes in March due to high inventory pressure, which led to the continued decline in panel prices in April.” Beijing Di Xian Information Consulting Co., LTD. Vice general manager Yi Xianjing so analysis said.

“Since 2021, international logistics capacity continues to be tight, international customers have a long delivery cycle, some orders in the second half of the year were transferred to the first half of the year, pushing up the panel price in the first half of the year but also overdraft the demand in the second half of the year, resulting in the panel price began to decline from June last year,” Liu Yush told reporters, and the situation between Russia and Ukraine has suddenly escalated this year. It also further affected the recovery of demand in Europe, thus prolonging the downward trend in prices. Based on the current situation, Liu predicted that the bottom of TV panel prices will come in June 2022, but the inflection point will be delayed if further factors affect global demand and lead to additional cuts by brands.

With the price of TV panels falling to the cash cost line, in Liu’s opinion, some overseas production capacity with old equipment and poor profitability will gradually cut production. The corresponding profits of mainland panel manufacturers will inevitably be affected. However, due to the advantages in scale and cost, there is no urgent need for mainland panel manufacturers to reduce the dynamic rate. It is estimated that Q2’s dynamic level is only 3%-4% lower than Q1’s. “We don’t have much room to switch production because the prices of IT panels are dropping rapidly.”

Ovirivo analysts also pointed out that the current TV panel factory shipment pressure and inventory pressure may increase. “In the first quarter, the production line activity rate is at a high level, and the panel factory has entered the stage of loss. If the capacity is not adjusted, the panel factory will face the pressure of further decline in panel prices and increased losses.”

In the first quarter of this year, the retail volume of China’s color TV market was 9.03 million units, down 8.8% year on year. Retail sales totaled 28 billion yuan, down 10.1 percent year on year. Under the situation of volume drop, the industry expects this year color TV manufacturers will also set off a new round of LCD display panel prices war.

It may seem odd in the face of stalled economies and stalled AV projects, but the costs of LCD display products are on the rise, according to a report from Digital Supply Chain Consulting, or DSCC.

Demand for LCD products remains strong , says DSCC, at the same time as shortages are deepening for glass substrates and driver integrated circuits. Announcements by the Korean panel makers that they will maintain production of LCDs and delay their planned shutdown of LCD lines has not prevented prices from continuing to rise.

I assume, but absolutely don’t know for sure, that panel pricing that affects the much larger consumer market must have a similar impact on commercial displays, or what researchers seem to term public information displays.

Panel prices increased more than 20% for selected TV sizes in Q3 2020 compared to Q2, and by 27% in Q4 2020 compared to Q3, we now expect that average LCD TV panel prices in Q1 2021 will increase by another 12%.

The first chart shows our latest TV panel price update, with prices increasing across the board from a low in May 2020 to an expected peak in May/June of this year. Last month’s update predicted a peak in February/March. However, our forecast for the peak has been increased and pushed out after AGC reported a major accident at a glass plant in Korea and amid continuing problems with driver IC shortages.

The inflection point for this cycle, the month of the most significant M/M price increases, was passed in September 2020, and the price increases have been slowing down each month since then, but the January increase averaged 4.1%. Prices in February 2021 have reached levels last seen exactly three years ago in February 2018.

Prices increased in Q4 for all sizes of TV panels, with massive percentage increases in sizes from 32” to 55” ranging from 28% to 38%. Prices for 65” and 75” increased at a slower rate, by 19% and 8% respectively, as capacity has continued to increase on those sizes with Gen 10.5 expansions.

Prices for every size of TV panel will increase in Q1 at a slower rate, ranging from 5% for 75” to 16% for 43”, and we now expect that prices will continue to increase in Q2, with the increases ranging from 3% to 6% on a Q/Q basis. We now expect that prices will peak in Q2 and will start to decline in Q3, but the situation remains fluid.

All that said, LCD panels are way less costly, way lighter and slimmer, and generally look way better than the ones being used 10 years ago, so prices is a relative problem.

Recently, it was announced that the 32-inch and 43-inch panels fell by approximately USD 5 ~ USD 6 in early June, 55-inch panels fell by approximately USD 7, and 65-inch and 75-inch panels are also facing overcapacity pressure, down from USD 12 to USD 14. In order to alleviate pressure caused by price decline and inventory, panel makers are successively planning to initiate more significant production control in 3Q22. According to TrendForce’s latest research, overall LCD TV panel production capacity in 3Q22 will be reduced by 12% compared with the original planning.

As Chinese panel makers account for nearly 66% of TV panel shipments, BOE, CSOT, and HKC are industry leaders. When there is an imbalance in supply and demand, a focus on strategic direction is prioritised. According to TrendForce, TV panel production capacity of the three aforementioned companies in 3Q22 is expected to decrease by 15.8% compared with their original planning, and 2% compared with 2Q22. Taiwanese manufacturers account for nearly 20% of TV panel shipments so, under pressure from falling prices, allocation of production capacity is subject to dynamic adjustment. On the other hand, Korean factories have gradually shifted their focus to high-end products such as OLED, QDOLED, and QLED, and are backed by their own brands. However, in the face of continuing price drops, they too must maintain operations amenable to flexible production capacity adjustments.

TrendForce indicates, that in order to reflect real demand, Chinese panel makers have successively reduced production capacity. However, facing a situation in which terminal demand has not improved, it may be difficult to reverse the decline of panel pricing in June. However, as TV sizes below 55 inches (inclusive) have fallen below their cash cost in May (which is seen as the last line of defense for panel makers) and are even flirting with the cost of materials, coupled with production capacity reduction from panel makers, the price of TV panels has a chance to bottom out at the end of June and be flat in July. However, demand for large sizes above 65 inches (inclusive) originates primarily from Korean brands. Due to weak terminal demand, TV brands revising their shipment targets for this year downward, and purchase volume in 3Q22 being significantly cut down, it is difficult to see a bottom for large-size panel pricing. TrendForce expects that, optimistically, this price decline may begin to dissipate month by month starting in June but supply has yet to reach equilibrium, so the price of large sizes above 65 inches (inclusive) will continue to decline in 3Q22.

TrendForce states, as panel makers plan to reduce production significantly, the price of TV panels below 55 inches (inclusive) is expected to remain flat in 3Q22. However, panel manufacturers cutting production in the traditional peak season also means that a disappointing 2H22 peak season is a foregone conclusion and it will not be easy for panel prices to reverse. However, it cannot be ruled out, as operating pressure grows, the number and scale of manufacturers participating in production reduction will expand further and its timeframe extended, enacting more effective suppression on the supply side, so as to accumulate greater momentum for a rebound in TV panel quotations.

The current oversupply of liquid crystal display (LCD) panels is expected to continue through 2023, analyst firm TrendForce said in its latest forecast.

LCD panel prices had increased from June 2020 through the first half of 2021, the firm said, spurned by high demand for consumer electronics from Covid-19.

In supply, while LG Display could halt production at its P7 factory in Paju during the first quarter of next year, CSOT’s start of operation of its Gen 8.6 T9 factory could increase panel supply further than the current state, TrendForce said.

The analyst firm also said that LCD factories that use Gen 5 substrate or above could see their operation rate drop to 60% during the fourth quarter, which will be the lowest in ten years.

(2 November, 2017) – A major decrease in manufacturing cost gap between organic light-emitting diode (OLED) display and liquid crystal display (LCD) panel is expected to support the expansion of OLED TVs, according to new analysis from

analysis estimates that the total manufacturing cost of a 55-inch OLED ultra-high definition (UHD) TV panel -- at the larger end for OLED TVs -- stood at $582 per unit in the second quarter of 2017, a 55 percent drop from when it was first introduced in the first quarter of 2015. The cost is expected to decline further to $242 by the first quarter of 2021, IHS Markit said.

The manufacturing cost of a 55-inch OLED UHD TV panel has narrowed to 2.5 times that of an LCD TV panel with the same specifications, compared to 4.3 times back in the first quarter of 2015.

“Historically, a new technology takes off when the cost gap between a dominant technology and a new technology gets narrower,” said Jimmy Kim, principal analyst for display materials at IHS Markit. “The narrower gap in the manufacturing cost between the OLED and LCD panel will help the expansion of OLED TVs.”

However, it is not just the material that determines the cost gap. In fact, when the 55-inch UHD OLED TV panel costs were 2.5 times more than LCD TV panel, the gap in the material costs was just 1.7 times. Factors other than direct material costs, such as production yield, utilization rate, depreciation expenses and substrate size, do actually matter, IHS Markit said.

The total manufacturing cost difference will be reduced to 1.8 times from the current 2.5 times, when the yield is increased to a level similar to that of LCD panels. “However, due to the depreciation cost of OLED, there are limitations in cost reduction from just improving yield,” Kim said. “When the depreciation is completed, a 31 percent reduction in cost can be expected from now.”

by IHS Markit provides more detailed cost analysis of OLED panels, including details of boards, arrays, luminescent materials, encapsulants and direct materials such as driver ICs. The report also covers overheads such as occupancy rate, selling, general and depreciation costs. In addition, this report analyzes OLED panels in a wide range of sizes and applications.

It’s the end of an era for LCD panels, or at least for those manufactured by Samsung. The Korean firm has been teasing the end of its LCD manufacturing for years, but now, the deadline is about to be reached. From June 2022, Samsung Display will no longer produce liquid-crystal displays (LCD). This does not mean that the end of LCD panels in smartphones, computers, and other electronics. It’s just Samsung leaving the segment due to tough competition from its Chinese and Taiwanese counterparts.

Instead of keeping a tepid LCD business, the company will shift efforts to OLED (organic light-emitting diode) and QD displays. The OLED panels have become the “best” for the smartphone market. There is still a predominance of LCD screens, but most of the flagship, premium mid-range, and even conventional smartphones are getting OLED displays nowadays. LCDsare still very popular in the segment of PCs and laptops, however.

According to Display Supply Chain Consultants (DSCC), the average price index of LCD panels, measured against 100 in January 2014, will fall to 36.6 in September of this year. The figure has dropped farther from the record low of 41.5 in April of this year. It’s also 58 percent lower than the record high of 87 in June 2021.

Unfortunately, no investment plan details have since been announced. However, the employees of the LCD business should retain their jobs. The company will likely move them to the Quantum Dot Display business. Worth noting, that Samsung has been trying to leave the LCD segment since 2020. The initial plan was to close the business at the end of 2020. However, these plays have been delayed by Samsung Electronics. The sudden increase in the prices of the LCD panels during the COVID-19 pandemic urged Samsung Display to keep the manufacturing for a while. This resulted in an entire 2021 of continuous manufacturing. Now, however, the business seems to have reached the deadline.

The display affiliate was first formed in 1991, as an LCD business arm under Samsung Electronics. It formally launched in 2021, as Samsung Display. It has merged with three local and Japanese makers of active-matrix organic light-emitting diodes (AMOLED), for the production of advanced types of displays. The company will no longer produce the panels for Samsung TVs which will likely push forward the portfolio of QD and OLED smart TVs.

The mid-range segment of smartphones may not suffer a big impact. After all, there are countless LCD makers still operating in the industry. As far as the mobile segment is concerned, the company is doing a good job. The Galaxy S22 series is successful in China, and the company is preparing the terrain for the Galaxy Z Fold 4. The flagships and the foldable offer the best Samsung has been developing in display tech.

Instead, the company will concentrate on its production of OLEDand quantum dot displays, with employees from its LCD arm expected to be transferred to the latter business.

Figures provided by U.S market research firm Display Supply Chain Consultants (DSCC) suggest that the average price index of LCD panels will fall to 36.6 in September when measured against a score of 100 in January 2014, beating its previous record low of 41.5 in April.

Samsung Display"s profits from LCD production have been declining for several years due to increased competition from Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturers, and the company was said to be considering withdrawing from the market in 2020. However, the COVID-19 pandemic saw a surge in demand for LCD TVs, with the average price index peaking at a record high of 87 in June 2021, 58% higher than where it currently stands. Samsung Display postponed winding up its LCD operation to take advantage of this temporary boom which has now slumped considerably.

Samsung Electronics, the biggest customer of Samsung Display"s panels, has already found new suppliers for its LCDs having partnered up with Taiwanese display manufacturer AU Optronics Corp in 2020, followed by Chinese component producer BOE Technology Group earlier this year.

Earlier this month, Samsung Display"s fellow South Korean counterpart LG Display was reported to be considering its own exit from LCD panel production, according to The Korean Economic Daily.(opens in new tab) Insiders have speculated that LG Display is likely to cease its LCD operations favouring OLED production after noting that the company had cut back on its use of glass substrates at its LCD facilities.

Large LCD panel prices have been continuously increasing for last 10 months due to an increase in demand and tight supply. This has helped the LCD industry to recover from drastic panel price reductions, revenue and profit loss in 2019. It has also contributed to the growth of QD and miniLED LCD TV. Strong LCD TV panel demand is expected to continue in 2021, but component shortages, supply constraints, and very high panel price increase can still create uncertainties.

It was earlier anticipated that price increases would decelerate in 2Q, but now the price increase is accelerating compared to 1Q, according to a research by DSCC. Panel prices increased by 27 percent in 4Q20 compared to 3Q and slowed down to 14.5 percent in 1Q21 compared to 4Q, but the current estimate is that average LCD TV panel prices in 2Q21 will increase by another 17 percent. The prices are expected to peak sometime in 3Q21.

There has been a surge in prices across the board from a low in May 2020 to a high point in June 2021 which does not represent the peak. There have been multiple inflection points for this cycle: the first inflection point, the month of the biggest MoM price increases, was passed in September 2020, and the price increase slowed down, then started to accelerate again in January 2021, and there is another slowdown starting in May 2021. Prices in May 2021 have reached levels last seen in July 2017.

Prices increased in 1Q21 for all sizes of TV panels, with double-digit percentage increases in sizes from 32- to 65-inch ranging from 12-18 percent. Prices for 75-inch increased by 8 percent as capacity has continued to increase on Gen 10.5 lines, where 75-inch is an efficient six-cut. Prices for every size of TV panel will continue to increase in 2Q at an even faster rate, ranging from 12 percent for 75-inch to 24 percent for 32-inch. The prices are expected to continue to increase in 3Q.

The current upturn in the crystal cycle has seen the biggest trough-to-peak price increases for LCD TV panels, and the recent acceleration of prices has further extended this record. Comparing the forecast for June 2021 panel prices with the prices in May 2020, there is a trough-to-peak increases from 34 percent for 75-inch to 181 percent for 32-inch, with an average of 111 percent. In comparison, the average trough-to-peak increase of the 2016 to 2017 cycle was 48 percent, and prior cycles saw smaller increases.

Before the current upswing, the largest panels sold with an area premium, but the current cycle has flipped that upside down. Whereas in May 2020, 75-inch panels sold at an area premium of USD 77 per square meter higher than the 32-inch panel price, as of May 2021, they are selling at a USD 65 discount on an area basis. This means that those Gen 10.5 fabs could earn higher revenues from making 32-inch panels than from 75-inch panels. The pattern for 65-inch is even more severe, and 65-inch is now selling at a USD 69 per square meter discount (alternately, a 22% area discount) compared to 32-inch.

The improved pricing for LCD TV panels has already improved the profitability of panel makers. It will continue to drive their profits even higher, especially the two prominent Taiwanese players, who have Gen 7.5 and Gen 8.5 fabs but no Gen 10.5 fabs. Chinese panel makers HKC and CHOT have a similar industrial profile and stand to benefit greatly as well. The leading companies with Gen 10.5 fabs (BOE, CSOT and Foxconn/Sharp) stand to benefit less because the price increases on the largest sizes are more modest, but every LCD panel maker is doing well.

TV price index has increased from its all-time low of 42 in May 2020 to 87 in May 2021, and it is expected to reach 89 in June and over 90 in 3Q21 before declining in 4Q. The YoY increase has surpassed 100 percent in May 2021. It will remain at elevated levels throughout the second half of 2021.

In addition to being an exceptionally large upcycle, the current upswing matches some of the longest stretches of increasing prices ever seen, more than a full year from trough to peak. The length of the upswing can be attributed to several factors: glass and driver IC shortages, the pandemic-driven demand or the potential for Korean fab downsizing.

TV makers continued to make strong profits in 1Q21 despite increasing panel prices. The TV market typically slows down in 1Q and 2Q. TV maker revenues declined seasonally in 1Q but less than usual, and the operating margins for both Samsung and LGE increased sequentially. Samsung’s CE division operating profits exceeded USD 1 billion for the quarter for only the second time ever. With demand remaining strong, TV makers have weathered the increase in panel prices and remained very profitable.

There is a surge in LCD equipment spending to respond to dramatically improved market conditions in the LCD market. DSCC sees LCD revenues rising 32 percent in 2021 to USD 112 billion on strong unit and area growth with prices and profitability rebounding to or even exceeding the 2017 levels. With LCD suppliers able to sell everything they can make at attractive margins; it should be no surprise that most LCD manufacturers are looking to expand capacity.

However, unlike previous upturns when many new fabs were built, in this upturn panel suppliers are looking to stretch their capacity through smaller investments, simplifying their processes and debottlenecking. Having said that, there will be two new Gen 8.6 mega fabs being built. The result versus last quarter is a 10 percent or a USD 2.2 billion increase in 2020-2024 LCD spending from USD 21.8 billion to USD 24 billion. The 2021 LCD equipment spending forecast is up 15 percent versus last quarter’s forecast to USD 10 billion, with 2021 LCD equipment spending up 125 percent versus 2021. In addition, 2022 was upgraded by 28 percent to USD 3.5 billion.

Although there is a healthy upgrade in LCD equipment spending in 2021 and 2022, the outlook for 2022-2024 spending is still significantly lower than in previous years, resulting in tighter capacity and slower price reductions in the next downturn. In addition, with Korean LCD suppliers expected to reduce their LCD capacity and convert to potentially higher margin OLEDs, the outlook for LCD pricing and profitability looks quite healthy, which may result in even more equipment spending, especially as miniLEDs gain acceptance.

An unfortunate and untimely string of accidents has created a historic tight glass market and caused a very unusual industry average price increase of several percent. In last few months top glass suppliers Corning, NEG, and AGC have all experienced production problems. A tank failure at Corning, a power outage at NEG, and an accident at an AGC glass plant all resulted in glass supply constraints when demand and production has been increasing.

In March 2021 Corning announced its plan to increase glass prices in 2Q21. Corning has also increased supply by starting glass tank in Korea to supply China’s Gen 10.5 fabs that are ramping up. Most of the growth in capacity is coming from Gen 8.6 and Gen 10.5 fabs in China.

Besides glass there have been other component shortages including driver ICs and polarizers. The lack of investment in polarizers and base films in 2019 caught the industry off guard when demand turned around in 2020. Multiple other materials are also in tight supply and are affecting different makers in different ways, supporting inflationary price trends.

Widespread component supply shortages could impact availability on LCD TV panels from CSOT and Innolux. The display panel manufacturers have warned that supplies of panels are expected to be tight throughout the year.

According to Li Dongsheng, chairman, TCL, panel shortages will continue in 1H21, following conditions already hampered last year during the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The situation for 2H21 remains to be seen but for 2021 overall panel supply will be tight.

James Yang, president, Innolux, has warned of a shortage in LCD panels caused by strong demand for LCD coming out of the global crisis and the conditions are expected to continue through 2021. Innolux has seen shortages in LCD components including power semiconductors, driver ICs and glass substrates that have kept production below capacity. Shortages of ICs and semiconductors could continue right up to the 1H22.

Ironically, prior to the run-on LCD panel supplies, manufacturers were faced with the dilemma of overproduction causing a glut in inventory, which was driving prices artificially lower. This was the result of giant new LCD fabs coming online in China and other areas of Asia.

Panel makers, being cognizant of that threat, are expected to produce panels at a more tempered pace to keep margins healthy. LCD panel prices continued to rise in March after moving up in February.

Almost all Chinese panel makers are doing everything they can to incrementally increase their current factories’ capacities through productivity enhancements and new equipment purchases for debottlenecking or capacity expansions. For the same reasons, South Korean panel makers continue to delay shutting down their domestic LCD TV factories.

TV manufacturers have been moving aggressively to replenish inventories of LCD panels to meet strong sales of TVs and other devices to meeting escalating demand, particularly in the United States and Europe.

An increase in demand for larger size TVs in 2H20 combined with component shortages has pushed the market to supply constraint and caused continuous panel price increases from June 2020 to March 2021. The panel price increase resulting in higher costs for TV brands. It has also made it difficult for lower priced brands to acquire enough panels to offer lower priced TVs. Further, panel suppliers are giving priority to top brands with larger orders during supply constraint.

For 3 years, from 2017 to 2020, LCD panel makers suffered through a continuous pattern of price declines interrupted only with brief respites. With the COVID-19 demand surge assisted by shortages in glass and DDICs, panel prices are spiking. Korean, Taiwanese, and Chinese panel makers are reporting robust margins in 1Q 2021 and the good news is anticipated for panel makers to get even better in 2Q.

Although multiple caveats remain about how both supply and demand will trend over the coming months, the modeled glut level is a leading indicator that the next cycle is now on its way, which implies falling prices, utilization, and profitability. Industry players should consider the implications when planning business strategies for the next 2 years.

Large thin-film transistor liquid crystal display (TFT LCD) panel makers are expected to reduce production of comparatively smaller sized 32-, 40- and 43-inch panels, helping to stabilize panel prices in the third quarter of 2018. In the longer term, however, the oversupply issue still remains, eventually causing older TFT LCD fabs to be restructured, according to IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO).

According to the latest AMOLED and LCD Supply Demand & Equipment Tracker by IHS Markit, currently planned new factories will increase large display panel production capacity by 31 percent or 77.7M square meters from 2018 to 2021. However, based on the current demand forecast, there will be about 49 million square meters of capacity in the pipeline more than the market requires in 2021. The supply/demand glut level is expected to continue to increase from 12 percent in 2018 to 23 percent in 2021, remaining well above 10 percent or what is modeled to be a balanced market.

Between 2019 and 2021, there will be a great amount of LCD TV panel capacity built, mainly from generation Gen10.5/11 factories in China, according to IHS Markit.

“Some panel makers may be forced to reduce utilization rates, while some planned capacity may never be built,” said David Hsieh, senior director of displays at IHS Markit. “Furthermore, in the next few years, legacy factory restructuring will likely accelerate. For the TFT LCD industry to return to a balanced supply/demand level, multiple Gen 5, Gen 6 and even Gen 8 factories will likely need to be shut down.”

Possible restructuring of legacy factories may include fab shutdown, facility consolidation, or conversion to other technologies, such as active-matrix organic light-emitting diode (AMOLED) panels, ePaper backplanes and sensors.

According to the Display Production & Inventory Tracker by IHS Markit, fab restructuring can be attributed to multiple reasons, such as no longer competitive, old equipment, shifts in panel makers’ business focus, excessive overhead from under-utilized facilities and pressure on profitability.

“Oversupply is not the end of the crystal cycle. The industry has a long history of dynamically adjusting itself to balance supply and demand,” Hsieh said. “The process may create many challenges for supply chain companies. However, the delayed expansion of new factories, the restructuring of legacy fabs and the potential for faster demand growth spurred by lower panel prices will help the LCD industry to eventually return to equilibrium.”