industry lcd panel quotation

[Introduction]: This paper analyzes the competitive pattern of the panel display industry from both supply and demand sides. On the supply side, the optimization of the industry competition pattern by accelerating the withdrawal of Samsung’s production capacity is deeply discussed. Demand-side focuses on tracking global sales data and industry inventory changes.

Since April 2020, the display device sector rose 4.81%, ranking 11th in the electronic subsectors, 3.39 percentage points behind the SW electronic sector, 0.65 percentage points ahead of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index. Of the top two domestic panel display companies, TCL Technology is up 11.35 percent in April and BOE is up 4.85 percent.

Specific to the panel display plate, we still do the analysis from both ends of supply and demand: supply-side: February operating rate is insufficient, especially panel display module segment grain rate is not good, limited capacity to boost the panel display price. Since March, effective progress has been made in the prevention and control of the epidemic in China. Except for some production lines in Wuhan that have been delayed, other domestic panels show that the production lines have returned to normal. In South Korea, Samsung announced recently that it would accelerate its withdrawal from all LCD production lines. This round of output withdrawal exceeded market expectations both in terms of pace and amplitude. We will make a detailed analysis of it in Chapter 2.

Demand-side: We believe that people spend more time at home under the epidemic situation, and TV, as an important facility for family entertainment, has strong demand resilience. In our preliminary report, we have interpreted the pick-up trend of domestic TV market demand in February, which also showed a good performance in March. At present, the online market in China maintains a year-on-year growth of about 30% every week, while the offline market is still weak, but its proportion has been greatly reduced. At present, people are more concerned about the impact of the epidemic overseas. According to the research of Cinda Electronics Industry Chain, in the first week, after Italy was closed down, local TV sales dropped by about 45% from the previous week. In addition, Media Markt, Europe’s largest offline consumer electronics chain, also closed in mid-March, which will affect terminal sales to some extent, and panel display prices will continue to be under pressure in April and May. However, we believe that as the epidemic is brought under control, overseas market demand is expected to return to the pace of China’s recovery.

From a price perspective, the panel shows that prices have risen every month through March since the bottom of December 19 reversed. However, according to AVC’s price bulletin of TV panel display in early April, the price of TV panel display in April will decrease slightly, and the price of 32 “, 39.5 “, 43 “, 50 “and 55” panels will all decrease by 1 USD.65 “panel shows price down $2; The 75 “panel shows the price down by $3.The specific reasons have been described above, along with the domestic panel display production line stalling rate recovery, supply-side capacity release; The epidemic spread rapidly in Europe and the United States, sports events were postponed, local blockades were gradually rolled out, and the demand side declined to a certain extent.

Looking ahead to Q2, we think prices will remain under pressure in May, but prices are expected to pick up in June as Samsung’s capacity is being taken out and the outbreak is under control overseas. At the same time, from the perspective of channel inventory, the current all-channel inventory, including the inventory of all panel display factories, has fallen to a historical low. The industry as a whole has more flexibility to cope with market uncertainties. At the same time, low inventory is also the next epidemic warming panel show price foreshadowing.

In terms of valuation level, due to the low concentration and fierce competition in the panel display industry in the past ten years, the performance of sector companies is cyclical to a certain extent. Therefore, PE, PB, and other methods should be comprehensively adopted for valuation. On the other hand, the domestic panel shows that the leading companies in the past years have sustained large-scale capital investment, high depreciation, and a long period of poor profitability, leading to the inflated TTM PE in the first half of 2014 to 2017. Therefore, we will display the valuation level of the sector mainly through the PB-band analysis panel in this paper.

In 2017, due to the combined impact of panel display price rise and OLED production, the valuation of the plate continued to expand, with the highest PB reaching 2.8 times. Then, with the price falling, the panel shows that PB bottomed out at the end of January 2019 at only 1.11 times. From the end of 2019 to February, the panel shows that rising prices have driven PB all the way up, the peak PB reached 2.23 times. Since entering March, affected by the epidemic, in the short term panel prices under pressure, the valuation of the plate once again fell back to 1.62 times. In April, the epidemic situation in the epidemic country was gradually under control, and the valuation of the sector rebounded to 1.68 times.

We believe the sector is still at the bottom of the stage as Samsung accelerates its exit from LCD capacity and industry inventories remain low. Therefore, once the overseas epidemic is under control and the domestic demand picks up, the panel shows that prices will rise sharply. In addition, the plate will also benefit from Ultra HD drive in the long term. Panel display plate medium – and long-term growth logic is still clear. Coupled with the optimization of the competitive pattern, industry volatility will be greatly weakened. The current plate PB compared to the historical high has sufficient space, optimistic about the plate leading company’s investment value.

Revenue at Innolux and AU Optronics has been sluggish for several months and improved in March. Since the third quarter of 2017, Innolux’s monthly revenue growth has been negative, while AU Optronics has only experienced revenue growth in a very few months.AU Optronics recorded a record low revenue in January and increased in February and March. Innolux’s revenue returned to growth in March after falling to its lowest in recent years in February. However, because the panel display manufacturers in Taiwan have not put in new production capacity for many years, the production process of the existing production line is relatively backward, and the competitiveness is not strong.

On March 31, Samsung Display China officially sent a notice to customers, deciding to terminate the supply of all LCD products by the end of 2020.LGD had earlier announced that it would close its local LCDTV panel display production by the end of this year. In the following, we will analyze the impact of the accelerated introduction of the Korean factory on the supply pattern of the panel display industry from the perspective of the supply side.

The early market on the panel display plate is controversial, mainly worried about the exit of Korean manufacturers, such as LCD display panel price rise, or will slow down the pace of capacity exit as in 17 years. And we believe that this round of LCD panel prices and 2017 prices are essentially different, the LCD production capacity of South Korean manufacturers exit is an established strategy, will not be transferred because of price warming. Investigating the reasons, we believe that there are mainly the following three factors driving:

(1) Under the localization, scale effect, and aggregation effect, the Chinese panel leader has lower cost and stronger profitability than the Japanese and Korean manufacturers. In terms of cost structure, according to IHS data, material cost accounts for 70% of the cost displayed by the LCD panel, while depreciation accounts for 17%, so the material cost has a significant impact on it. At present, the upstream LCD, polarizer, PCB, mold, and key target material line of the mainland panel display manufacturers are fully imported into the domestic, effectively reducing the material cost. In addition, at the beginning of the factory, manufacturers not only consider the upstream glass and polarizer factory but also consider the synergy between the downstream complete machine factory, so as to reduce the labor cost, transportation cost, etc., forming a certain industrial clustering effect. The growing volume of shipments also makes the economies of scale increasingly obvious. In the long run, the profit gap between the South Korean plant and the mainland plant will become even wider.

(2) The 7 and 8 generation production lines of the Korean plant cannot adapt to the increasing demand for TV in average size. Traditionally, the 8 generation line can only cut the 32 “, 46 “, and 60” panel displays. In order to cut the other size panel displays economically and effectively, the panel display factory has made small adjustments to the 8 generation line size, so there are the 8.5, 8.6, 8.6+, and 8.7 generation lines. But from the cutting scheme, 55 inches and above the size of the panel display only part of the generation can support, and the production efficiency is low, hindering the development of large size TV. Driven by the strong demand for large-size TV, the panel display generation line is also constantly breaking through. In 2018, BOE put into operation the world’s first 10.5 generation line, the Hefei B9 plant, with a designed capacity of 120K/ month. The birth of the 10.5 generation line is epoch-making. It solves the cutting problem of large-size panel displays and lays the foundation for the outbreak of large-size TV. From the cutting method, one 10.5 generation line panel display can effectively cut 18 43 inches, 8 65 inches, 6 75 inches panel display, and can be more efficient in hybrid mode cutting, with half of the panel display 65 inches, the other half of the panel display 75 inches, the yield is also guaranteed. Currently, there are a total of five 10.5 generation lines in the world, including two for domestic panel display companies BOE and Huaxing Optoelectronics. Sharp has a 10.5 generation line in Guangzhou, which is mainly used to produce its own TV. Korean manufacturers do not have the 10.5 generation line. In the context of the increasing size of the TV, Korean manufacturers are obviously at a disadvantage in competitiveness.

(3) As the large-size OLED panel display technology has become increasingly mature, Samsung and LGD hope to transfer production to large-size OLED with better profit prospects as soon as possible. Apart from the price factor, the reason why South Korean manufacturers are exiting LCD production is more because the large-size OLED panel display technology is becoming mature, and Samsung and LGD hope to switch to large-size OLED production as soon as possible, which has better profit prospects. At present, there are three major large-scale OLED solutions including WOLED, QD OLED, and printed OLED, while there is only WOLED with a mass production line at present.

According to statistics, shipments of OLED TVs totaled 2.8 million in 2018 and increased to 3.5 million in 2019, up 25 percent year on year. But it accounted for only 1.58% of global shipments. The capacity gap has greatly limited the volume of OLED TV.LG alone consumes about 47% of the world’s OLED TV panel display capacity, thanks to its own capacity. Other manufacturers can only purchase at a high price. According to the industry chain survey, the current price of a 65-inch OLED panel is around $800-900, while the price of the same size LCD panel is currently only $171.There is a significant price difference between the two.

Samsung and LGD began to shut down LCD production lines in Q3 last year, leading to the recovery of the panel display sector. Entering 2020, the two major South Korean plants have announced further capacity withdrawal planning. In the following section, we will focus on its capacity exit plan and compare it with the original plan. It can be seen that the pace and magnitude of Samsung’s exit this round is much higher than the market expectation:

(1) LGD: LGD currently has three large LCD production lines of P7, P8, and P9 in China, with a designed capacity of 230K, 240K, and 90K respectively. At the CES exhibition at the beginning of this year, the company announced that IT would shut down all TV panel display production capacity in South Korea in 2020, mainly P7 and P8 lines, while P9 is not included in the exit plan because IT supplies IT panel display for Apple.

According to our latest industry chain survey, by the end of Q1 in 2020, P7 production capacity remains 140K; P8 has 100K of capacity left.P7 is expected to shut down by the end of the year, and P8 will shut down all TV production capacity at the end of the year, but there is still 40KIT production capacity to continue.

(2) Samsung: At present, Samsung has L8-1, L8-2, and L7-2 large-size LCD production lines in South Korea, with designed production capacities of 200K, 150K, and 160K respectively. At the same time in Suzhou has a 70K capacity of 8 generation line.

Global shipments of TV panel displays totaled 281 million in 2019, down 1.06 percent year on year, according to Insight. In fact, TV panel display shipments have been stable since 2015 at between 250 and 300 million units. At the same time, from the perspective of the structure of sales volume, the period from 2005 to 2010 was the period when the size of China’s TV market grew substantially. Third-world sales also leveled off in 2014. We believe that the sales volume of the TV market has stabilized and there is no big fluctuation. The impact of the epidemic on the overall demand may be more optimistic than the market expectation.

In contrast to the change in volume, we believe that the core driver of the growth in TV panel display demand is actually the increase in TV size. According to the data statistics of Group Intelligence Consulting, the average size of TV panel display in 2014 was 0.47 square meters, equivalent to the size of 41 inches screen. In 2019, the average TV panel size is 0.58 square meters, which is about the size of a 46-inch screen. From 2014 to 2019, the average CAGR of TV panel display size is 4.18%. Meanwhile, the shipment of TV in 2019 also increased compared with that in 2014. Therefore, from 2014 to 2019, the compound growth rate of the total area demand for TV panel displays is 6.37%.

It is assumed that 4K screen and 8K screen will accelerate the penetration and gradually become mainstream products in the next 2-3 years. The pace of screen size increase will accelerate. We have learned through industry chain research that the average size growth rate of TV will increase to 6-8% in 2020. Driven by the growth of the average size, the demand area of global TV panel displays is expected to grow even if TV sales decline, and the upward trend of industry demand remains unchanged.

Meanwhile, the global LCDTV panel display demand will increase significantly in 2021, driven by the recovery of terminal demand and the continued growth of the average TV size. In 2021, the whole year panel display will be in a short supply situation, the mainland panel shows that both males will enjoy the price elasticity.

This paper analyzes the competition pattern of the panel display industry from both supply and demand sides. On the supply side, the optimization of the industry competition pattern by accelerating the withdrawal of Samsung’s production capacity is deeply discussed. Demand-side focuses on tracking global sales data and industry inventory changes. Overall, we believe that the current epidemic has a certain impact on demand, and the panel shows that prices may be under short-term pressure in April or May. But as Samsung’s exit from LCD capacity accelerates, industry inventories remain low. So once the overseas epidemic is contained and domestic demand picks up, the panel suggests prices will surge. We are firmly optimistic about the A-share panel display plate investment value, maintain the industry “optimistic” rating. Suggested attention: BOE A, TCL Technology.

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In September, area prices for all screen sizes up to 65” fell in a range from $92 to $106 per square meter, with the 65” area price tied with 32” for the lowest in the industry at $92 per square meter. The largest screen size in our survey, 75” panels, continues to have a premium but that premium has eroded steadily. In June 2022, a 75” panel was priced at $144 per square meter, a $41 or 40% premium over the 32” area price. By September, the 75” premium over 32” had dropped to $27 and 29%. While prices for 65” and smaller panels increased in October, 75” prices stayed flat, and we expect that pattern to continue through Q4 and Q1.

Throughout the many cycles in the industry, we have seen that the most commoditized screen size is 32”, because this screen size can be efficiently produced on every Gen size fab from Gen 6 through Gen 10.5. Thus, when prices go down, 32” prices go down fastest, but when prices increase, the 32” price increase fastest as well. This was true in October as 32” prices increased by $2 or 7% for the month; the area price increased from $92 per square meter in September to $99 in October.

The next chart shows our estimates of cash costs vs. panel prices for large TV panels. While 55” panels have been below cash costs for most of the year, 65” prices reached cash costs in Q2 and for the first time 75” panel prices fell below cash costs in Q3. We expect that 55” and 65” panel prices will increase in Q4 and Q1 2023 but will remain slightly below cash costs.

According to the report, after SYTECH, the world"s second-largest copper clad laminate manufacturer announced an increase in the price of copper clad laminate (CCL), one of the main raw materials for printed circuit boards (PCB), domestic copper clad laminate manufacturers also followed suit. Copper clad laminate is the main raw material for circuit board (and there is no substitute material at present), which makes the cost and price of "printed circuit board (PCB)" increase, which leads to the price change of LCD panel which is highly dependent on PCB.

In November, the price of LCD panel still did not stop rising, but this has brought a lot of impact on the industry and its subsidiary industries. Samsung, LG, and other Korean manufacturers suspended the LCD production plan, and domestic LCD panel manufacturers headed by BOE had a sharp increase in shipment; the TV industry mainly consumed by the LCD panel, such as Hisense, TCL, Skyworth, Konka, Xiaomi and other domestic well-known TV manufacturers have successively increased the export price of products.

We can see that the price of LCD panels has been rising all the way, and the prices of TV, monitor, commercial computer, tablet, and other products have increased to a certain extent. And with the commercial computer corresponding, the industrial panel PC also inevitably has a certain price change.

In the panel composition of the industrial panel PCS, the LCD screen as an important part is also an important factor to determine the choice of product touch mode. According to the resistance, capacitance, non-touch, infrared touch, and other touch screens technologies, the LCD panel of industrial tablet computer also has a certain distinction. Users can choose the LCD panel according to the actual scene demand.

Generally speaking, the industrial panel PC manufacturers will use different brands of the LCD screen. Taking Touch Think as an example, its LCD suppliers are mainly BOE, Qimei, Qunchuang, sharp, AUO, Mitsubishi, LG, and other well-known brands from domestic and abroad. They all adopt an A + level quality LCD screen. According to the purchase cycle, the LCD panel brands used in each stage of products will be different.

As for the choice of touch screens, just as the BOE will divide LCD display types such as mobile phone, tablet, notebook, monitor, TV, medical treatment, etc., Touch Think industrial tablet PC screen support customized high-resolution screen, full viewing angle screen, explosion-proof screen, anti-glare screen, wide temperature screen, anti-peeping screen and other featured screens, which used to meet the special use applications such as laser machine, ATM, self-service machine, etc.

In general, the price rise of the LCD panel will lead to the price rise of many products due to the pressure of increasing cost, and the industrial panel PC can not be avoided. What manufacturers should do is to continue to maintain quality and provide users with high-quality products, so as to minimize and eliminate the negative impact of price increases on users.

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According to IMARC Group’s latest report, titled “TFT LCD Panel Market: Global Industry Trends, Share, Size, Growth, Opportunity and Forecast 2022-2027”, the global TFT LCD panel market size reached US$ 157 Billion in 2021. Looking forward, IMARC Group expects the market to reach US$ 207.6 Billion by 2027, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 4.7% during 2022-2027.

A thin-film-transistor liquid-crystal display (TFT LCD) panel is a liquid crystal display that is generally attached to a thin film transistor. It is an energy-efficient product variant that offers a superior quality viewing experience without straining the eye. Additionally, it is lightweight, less prone to reflection and provides a wider viewing angle and sharp images. Consequently, it is generally utilized in the manufacturing of numerous electronic and handheld devices. Some of the commonly available TFT LCD panels in the market include twisted nematic, in-plane switching, advanced fringe field switching, patterned vertical alignment and an advanced super view.

The global market is primarily driven by continual technological advancements in the display technology. This is supported by the introduction of plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) technology to manufacture TFT panels that offers uniform thickness and cracking resistance to the product. Along with this, the widespread adoption of the TFT LCD panels in the production of automobiles dashboards that provide high resolution and reliability to the driver is gaining prominence across the globe. Furthermore, the increasing demand for compact-sized display panels and 4K television variants are contributing to the market growth. Moreover, the rising penetration of electronic devices, such as smartphones, tablets and laptops among the masses, is creating a positive outlook for the market. Other factors, including inflating disposable incomes of the masses, changing lifestyle patterns, and increasing investments in research and development (R&D) activities, are further projected to drive the market growth.

The competitive landscape of the TFT LCD panel market has been studied in the report with the detailed profiles of the key players operating in the market.

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